BitcoinAlchemist on Nostr: Nostr is the perfect identity and information transport layer to enable decentralized ...
Nostr is the perfect identity and information transport layer to enable decentralized prediction markets. Bitcoin is the best monetary layer to facilitate purchasing of shares of event derivatives.
The question is this: what's the most decentralized and secure mechanism to enable tokenized shares of event derivatives similar to polymarket? In order for a prediction market to utilize LMSR (or some LMSR variant) it must have a limit order book to buy/sell shares in such a contract. Furthermore, those shares must be redeemable for Bitcoin after the event occurs.
Current bottleneck in prediction markets on Bitcoin is this token/share mechanism to enable price discovery (and therefore probability forecasting). If we can solve this then we can make a prediction market where anyone can ask any question they want, and provide liquidity to elicit responses from experts (or degens).
The question is this: what's the most decentralized and secure mechanism to enable tokenized shares of event derivatives similar to polymarket? In order for a prediction market to utilize LMSR (or some LMSR variant) it must have a limit order book to buy/sell shares in such a contract. Furthermore, those shares must be redeemable for Bitcoin after the event occurs.
Current bottleneck in prediction markets on Bitcoin is this token/share mechanism to enable price discovery (and therefore probability forecasting). If we can solve this then we can make a prediction market where anyone can ask any question they want, and provide liquidity to elicit responses from experts (or degens).