Austimized on Nostr: Maybe I'm paranoid, but markets look spooky: 1) short interest is at multi-year lows ...
Maybe I'm paranoid, but markets look spooky:
1) short interest is at multi-year lows
2) several interviewed investors said was the first dip where their clients called asking if they were buying instead of panicking and seeing if they were selling
3) heard an interview with someone who called 2008 who said tops weren't in when breadth was crazy skewed, but when it rotated (breadth is uncannily level right now)
4) now up to 14-15 different people saying market top is next year (with only a few of them saying Q3-4 2024 or early 2026)
5) credit spreads are starting to increase. Just a bit right now, but not much.
6) September will be 1st rate cut and the last few hiking cycles performance after a cut is... bad.
7) Sahm rule triggered, yield curves un-inverting, tons of awful economic data pouring in.
Many saying COVID response skewing data, but my read is that delays, not dispels.
Hopefully I'm paranoid, not right.
1) short interest is at multi-year lows
2) several interviewed investors said was the first dip where their clients called asking if they were buying instead of panicking and seeing if they were selling
3) heard an interview with someone who called 2008 who said tops weren't in when breadth was crazy skewed, but when it rotated (breadth is uncannily level right now)
4) now up to 14-15 different people saying market top is next year (with only a few of them saying Q3-4 2024 or early 2026)
5) credit spreads are starting to increase. Just a bit right now, but not much.
6) September will be 1st rate cut and the last few hiking cycles performance after a cut is... bad.
7) Sahm rule triggered, yield curves un-inverting, tons of awful economic data pouring in.
Many saying COVID response skewing data, but my read is that delays, not dispels.
Hopefully I'm paranoid, not right.