Austimized on Nostr: Pro-recession arguments: pretty much every recession indicator out there is firing: ...
Pro-recession arguments: pretty much every recession indicator out there is firing: uninverting yield-curves, Sahm rule, nominal/real retail sales divergence, recessions in many major world economies, GDP/GDI gap, housing bubble, AI bubble, Hussman’s indicators, etc. #recession
Anti-recession indicators: Boomers YOLOing with $100T+ of wealth, massive Fed deficit spending, gov’t realizing stonks down = tax receipts down, flood of crazy-cheap natural gas pouring from fracking fields, dollar milkshake flooding capital from rest of world into US.
My general outlook is real economy continues to stagnate while government/Fed pump financial economy.
And I’m investing accordingly. If enough changes, I’ll change.
Gray Swans: Taiwan, Iran, LR missiles vs Russia
White Swans: Ukraine war end, Israel end, Fusion, AI use cases multiply, string theory bypass, “black ops” science secret, geothermal
Black Swans: nuke, meteor, super volcano, virus, pension/insurance blow up
??? Swan: UAPs
Anti-recession indicators: Boomers YOLOing with $100T+ of wealth, massive Fed deficit spending, gov’t realizing stonks down = tax receipts down, flood of crazy-cheap natural gas pouring from fracking fields, dollar milkshake flooding capital from rest of world into US.
My general outlook is real economy continues to stagnate while government/Fed pump financial economy.
And I’m investing accordingly. If enough changes, I’ll change.
Gray Swans: Taiwan, Iran, LR missiles vs Russia
White Swans: Ukraine war end, Israel end, Fusion, AI use cases multiply, string theory bypass, “black ops” science secret, geothermal
Black Swans: nuke, meteor, super volcano, virus, pension/insurance blow up
??? Swan: UAPs