RolloTreadway on Nostr: nprofile1q…s60lz I don't want to predict anything as far ahead as 2029. A lot can ...
nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqg0tuf634rz4suczwj7kgnecr6cyt0eu9xmp3sp0fku68mqehq4msas60lz (nprofile…60lz) I don't want to predict anything as far ahead as 2029. A lot can and will happen.
Also I really want to dig properly into the 2024 election data which I've been meaning to do for ages but not enough energy.
But with those caveats, I would predict that if there was an election coming soon, Reform would pick up seats but not to an extent which is going to change much.
Things to consider: in 2015, Ukip also got a huge number of second places, and with only a slightly smaller share of the national vote. In the large majority of cases, these were protest votes in very safe seats. From a quick look at the data, that seems to generally be the case with Reform this year as well; the significant difference between Reform 2024 and Ukip 2015 is that the Tory vote dropped, allowing them to win four additional seats (in both elections, they retained one) in constituencies that other parties couldn't win. Although worth remembering that there were a couple of seats in 2015 that Ukip came very close to winning.
I remember having these discussions after 2015 too, with people who were insistent that Ukip's second places were about to become first places. Outside of a few hardline eurosceptic constituencies, there was no route for that to happen.
Secondly, I do find it quite surprising that we've had an election in which tactical voting played a bigger role than ever before - only 1997 gets at all close - and there's no discussion at all of this in the media. It's as if it didn't happen. The presumption appears to be that the many millions who voted tactically for Labour or LibDem or Green or Plaid Cymru (I don't think there was much SNP benefit from tactical voting this time but could be wrong), all those millions of people are going to decide that actually they don't want to vote tactically any more.
Anything could happen between now and 2029, but at this moment, such a presumption seems a bit weird to me. A poll recently showed Reform to be the second most unpopular party in the country (Tories way out in front, obviously), their leader is problematic to say the least, and outside of immigration their policies are out of step with the country.
Their main other policy is that the NHS should be scrapped (rescuing the NHS has consistently polled at the top of voters' priorities in recent years). They're completely opposed to any environmental policy (the UK has been shown to be substantially more supportive of green policies than any comparable country). And they're committed to a very small state (which is massively unpopular).
In 2015, wider Ukip policy was irrelevant to millions of voters who knew their vote was going to be irrelevant because of where they lived, and they just wanted to register an anti-EU vote. In 2024, it seems likely that the same is true but with immigration.
In seats that are potentially winnable, there will inevitably be more awareness of other Reform policies (and there'll be more awareness generally anyway, because of the greater prominence). There'll inevitably be tactical voting against them. And as we've seen this year, their choice of candidates is likely to be a bit dubious at best.
Again I do not know what will happen between now and 2029. It's a long time. But if there was an election due in 2025, I would be very confident in predicting that Reform would pick up some seats, benefiting from the ongoing Tory mess, but fewer than the LibDems and SNP (might be some Green gains too).
And I continue to be perturbed by the extent of media coverage about a party that has the same number of seats as the pro-Gaza independent alliance and only one more than the Green party and Plaid Cymru. It is very troubling.
Also I really want to dig properly into the 2024 election data which I've been meaning to do for ages but not enough energy.
But with those caveats, I would predict that if there was an election coming soon, Reform would pick up seats but not to an extent which is going to change much.
Things to consider: in 2015, Ukip also got a huge number of second places, and with only a slightly smaller share of the national vote. In the large majority of cases, these were protest votes in very safe seats. From a quick look at the data, that seems to generally be the case with Reform this year as well; the significant difference between Reform 2024 and Ukip 2015 is that the Tory vote dropped, allowing them to win four additional seats (in both elections, they retained one) in constituencies that other parties couldn't win. Although worth remembering that there were a couple of seats in 2015 that Ukip came very close to winning.
I remember having these discussions after 2015 too, with people who were insistent that Ukip's second places were about to become first places. Outside of a few hardline eurosceptic constituencies, there was no route for that to happen.
Secondly, I do find it quite surprising that we've had an election in which tactical voting played a bigger role than ever before - only 1997 gets at all close - and there's no discussion at all of this in the media. It's as if it didn't happen. The presumption appears to be that the many millions who voted tactically for Labour or LibDem or Green or Plaid Cymru (I don't think there was much SNP benefit from tactical voting this time but could be wrong), all those millions of people are going to decide that actually they don't want to vote tactically any more.
Anything could happen between now and 2029, but at this moment, such a presumption seems a bit weird to me. A poll recently showed Reform to be the second most unpopular party in the country (Tories way out in front, obviously), their leader is problematic to say the least, and outside of immigration their policies are out of step with the country.
Their main other policy is that the NHS should be scrapped (rescuing the NHS has consistently polled at the top of voters' priorities in recent years). They're completely opposed to any environmental policy (the UK has been shown to be substantially more supportive of green policies than any comparable country). And they're committed to a very small state (which is massively unpopular).
In 2015, wider Ukip policy was irrelevant to millions of voters who knew their vote was going to be irrelevant because of where they lived, and they just wanted to register an anti-EU vote. In 2024, it seems likely that the same is true but with immigration.
In seats that are potentially winnable, there will inevitably be more awareness of other Reform policies (and there'll be more awareness generally anyway, because of the greater prominence). There'll inevitably be tactical voting against them. And as we've seen this year, their choice of candidates is likely to be a bit dubious at best.
Again I do not know what will happen between now and 2029. It's a long time. But if there was an election due in 2025, I would be very confident in predicting that Reform would pick up some seats, benefiting from the ongoing Tory mess, but fewer than the LibDems and SNP (might be some Green gains too).
And I continue to be perturbed by the extent of media coverage about a party that has the same number of seats as the pro-Gaza independent alliance and only one more than the Green party and Plaid Cymru. It is very troubling.