mrclownworld on Nostr: I’m off-setting that bullish possibility by the risk that the market price of ...
I’m off-setting that bullish possibility by the risk that the market price of bitcoin has been to-date carefully managed by large holders (cough cough Tether) rather than organic
If it has been truly organic for the past decade, then the bullish developments should drive the price parabolic, yes
But if it has been managed (ie artificially-inflated) with the goal of attracting widespread adoption, which is now occurring, then dramatic upward manipulation might be no longer necessary and thus the past would serve as no real predictor for future price action
I mean, the widely publicized S2FX of the last cycle was just dead fucking wrong
If we ignore price and look just at halving timing vs the last cycle, we may already be near peak
Greed and fear at 75 also suggests this possibility
On the positive side this would probably mean an 80% drawdown isn’t likely
If it has been truly organic for the past decade, then the bullish developments should drive the price parabolic, yes
But if it has been managed (ie artificially-inflated) with the goal of attracting widespread adoption, which is now occurring, then dramatic upward manipulation might be no longer necessary and thus the past would serve as no real predictor for future price action
I mean, the widely publicized S2FX of the last cycle was just dead fucking wrong
If we ignore price and look just at halving timing vs the last cycle, we may already be near peak
Greed and fear at 75 also suggests this possibility
On the positive side this would probably mean an 80% drawdown isn’t likely