peterdutoit@peterdutoit.com
Peter du Toit

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nprofile1qqs26uk5338rdp89yn5dvjkant5q8c4sssswezvhz05lkna6sty99egpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0ds2urzej

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Last Notes

2023-10-12 09:36:37 UTC

Now that the Actuaries have woken up to the reality bearing down on us like a freight train, will the rest of us too?
The consequences of going to a permanent +1.5°C of warming by 2030 and then +2°C by 2050 are going to push many countries to the brink of collapse.
https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insights/futureset/futureset-insights/systemic-risk-scenarios/extreme-weather-leading-to-food-and-water-shortage
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis https://image.nostr.build/42782a5519b39dde95df97b0d2f60d478fcb5c5fee12e60ee8e5b3b711fcea24.jpg

2023-10-11 13:38:22 UTC

Berkely Earth:
“The global mean temperature in September 2023 was 1.82 ± 0.09 °C (3.28 ± 0.17 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average, a new record for the highest temperature excess of any month.”
2023 months above +1.5°C:
March +1.52°C
July +1.52°C
August +1.68°C
September +1.82°C
https://berkeleyearth.org/september-2023-temperature-update/
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis https://image.nostr.build/7cd701a0974d2cce29d4f374295904f29fd3f006286c1d3f2acf4afae6af7931.jpg

2023-10-06 16:28:51 UTC

We are stepping into a brand new world.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF):
“[September] as a whole was around 1.75°C warmer than an estimate of the September average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period.”
“For January to September, the global mean temperature for 2023 is 1.40°C higher than the 1850-1900.”
https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-september-2023
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy

2023-09-14 04:49:18 UTC

Our legacy in one graphic.
“Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries” (13 Sep 2023)
Katherine Richardson et al https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458
#PlanetaryBoundries https://image.nostr.build/3cc4313720a3129d9e8f91b58360d24a71fec5e96a9f9774a13a58a48b79ec6a.jpg

2023-09-13 14:23:30 UTC

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https://berkeleyearth.org/whats-new/

2023-09-13 14:22:38 UTC

Data just released by the team at Berkley Earth for August shows that the global mean temperature for the months of June to August above the 1850 to 1900 average looked like this:
June +1.47ºC
July +1.54ºC
August +1.68ºC
Source: berkeleyearth.org/whats-new/
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis #GlobalHeating
2023 is now almost certain to be the warmest year in the instrumental period. https://image.nostr.build/25de994b4887b2b88b149962c1c9fc6aadd3b22731948712c2294110ebf0d08f.jpg https://image.nostr.build/e689c989563148255f74e05b4ea158e82022d088dea4931fe9a9c85b0655f516.jpg https://image.nostr.build/b1e66b20e9e5ea32a6bc14a297dfc273f6552ff689c6d8d2d23e15f5e786b887.jpg

2023-09-06 15:31:34 UTC

No surprise at all, the June-July-August season was warmest on record globally by a large margin.
Again as said before preparation for the summer of 2024 needs to start *now* as it is projected to be even hotter than 2023.
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis
https://climate.copernicus.eu/summer-2023-hottest-record

2023-09-02 23:37:57 UTC

The heat is not done in Europe. September records set to tumble.
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwave #HeatDome
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/heat-dome-heatwave-forecast-western-europe-september-2023-autumn-season-mk/

2023-08-27 05:57:46 UTC

Wet Bulb Temperature risks 2023-2050:
“Even heat-adapted people cannot carry out normal outdoor activities past a wet-bulb temperature of 32°C (90°F), equivalent to a heat index of 55;°C (131°F). A reading of 35°C (95°F) – equivalent to a heat index of 71°C (160°F) – is considered the theoretical human survivability limit for up to six hours of exposure.”
Pictured: locations on earth that are at increased risk of reaching these thresholds for a number of days annually in next 27 years
Quote source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature
Graphic source: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_FullVolume.pdf
#ClimateLiteracy #WetBulbTemperatures #ClimateCrisis https://cdn.nostr.build/i/f2d1557eacc46a3496f3c05182a6c168f6137a6cc064d1157a596f939e9f56db.jpg

2023-08-26 17:56:13 UTC

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As peer-reviewed science, is the most reliable source of scientific knowledge we have. Can ask that you point me to any reputable peer reviewed studies or publications that back up these statements?

2023-08-26 10:58:42 UTC

#ClimateLiteracy
Take a look at these two images.
The first is from NASA and when sharing it they state “July 2023 was the hottest month globally since modern recordkeeping began in 1880, measuring at 1.18°C (2.12°F) above NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s 1951-1980 baseline average.“
we
The second image is from ECMWF and in its release they state “The month (July) is estimated to have been around 1.5°C warmer than the average for 1850-1900.”
Who’s right is it +1.18°C of warming or +1.5°C
We
They are both right. The difference is NASA is using 1950-1980 as the baseline and ECMWF is using 1850-1900 as their baseline.
In the work we do (see my cover image) we use the ECMWF baseline of 1850-1900.
Using that baseline, 2023 so far, has warmed +1.28°C
We are expected to cross the +1.5°C of warming by about 2030 and +2°C by 2050, the impacts of which are now coming clearer into view. https://cdn.nostr.build/i/bcb44bc5941730dbf4d2a05366b9b9c014106cf9f21b191334027311cdd45356.jpg https://cdn.nostr.build/i/deef50e70ce8a62bba808972c59681d4fe333e9155fdd4c41a9e8eff85db2458.jpg

2023-08-24 05:28:13 UTC

Current warming above the preindustrial average: +1.28°C
June 2023: +1.4°C
July 2023: +1.54°C
We are on track to reach +1.5°C of warming by about 2030 and +2°C by about 2050.
What will the heat domes look like then?
#Heatwave #HeatDome #ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis
https://www.threads.net/@weatherprofjeff/post/CwUAikqhyf5/

2023-08-23 05:57:44 UTC

US Heat Index forecast for Wednesday Aug 23, 2023
Risks explained:
27-32°C (80-90°F)
Caution: fatigue is possible with prolonged exposure and activity. Continuing activity could result in heat cramps.
32-41°C (90-105°F)
Extreme caution: heat cramps and heat exhaustion are possible. Continuing activity could result in heat stroke.
41-54°C (105-130°F)
Danger: heat cramps and heat exhaustion are likely; heat stroke is probable with continued activity.
Over 54°C (Over 130°F)
Extreme danger: heat stroke is imminent.
Forecast source: https://data.thespectrum.com/heat-index-forecast/day-1/
Heat Index explained: https://www.calculator.net/heat-index-calculator.html
Stay safe.
#Heatwave #ClimateCrisis https://cdn.nostr.build/i/59b0dccdf1f9953c11369d0027662117905d255e0a66df0d674f1c9f51320889.jpg

2023-08-22 17:49:02 UTC

With June and July having been the hottest months ever recorded, and now August likely to follow, 2023 looks set to become the hottest year on record.
For analysis see https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/on-track-for-the-warmest-august-on
So far (Aug 2023) we are at +1.28°C of warming above the preindustrial average.
You can see the Oxford University real-time tracker here https://www.globalwarmingindex.org

2023-08-22 09:41:22 UTC

This is a fire currently burning out of control in Alexandroupolis, Greece.
They are currently evacuating everyone in its path, including the hospital. https://greekreporter.com/2023/08/22/alexandroupolis-hospital-evacuated-wildfires-greece/
As mentioned a few days ago, https://mastodon.green/@peterdutoit/110920113513702018 climate refugees will not necessarily be from far away places but from local communities, sometimes from the next town or village.
The displacement and movement of people is set to increase dramatically with each 0.1°C of warming.
We are currently heating at about 1.22 W/m2. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/UhOh.14August2023.pdf
The month of June was the hottest ever recorded - above +1.4°C above the preindustrial average https://www.threads.net/@hausfath/post/CwPBjN7rkX_/
So was July at 1.54°C https://berkeleyearth.org/july-2023-temperature-update/ and
August is set to break its record too. https://www.threads.net/@hausfath/post/CwNsVAixJ8w/
If we cannot find a way to slam the brakes on our current emission trajectory there is a lot of disruption, pain and misery in our collective futures.
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateRefugees https://cdn.nostr.build/i/7ca15fe95e410c843b20e74e79dd453095f2f8932d6ff98b87fd156e6cbebd95.png https://cdn.nostr.build/i/7ca15fe95e410c843b20e74e79dd453095f2f8932d6ff98b87fd156e6cbebd95.png

2023-08-18 09:22:11 UTC

⚠️ Early Warning
Extreme precipitation event forecast for US west coast Aug 18-21. Flash flooding very likely.
Data source https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/efi2web_tp?area=North%20America&base_time=202308180000&day=3&quantile=99
https://void.cat/d/XoxEjXtBBUqWvdr7Ly7o1u.webp

2023-08-09 07:05:56 UTC

#EarlyWarning
In the next 27 years, on our current trajectory, everyone and everything alive on earth will first experience a world at an average global temperature of 15.3°C (+1.5°C above preindustrial average of 13.8°C) and then a world at 15.8°C (+2°C above preindustrial)
Both these states will unlock climate chaos only seen in movies.
Forget about 2100.
The clear and present danger is NOW for billions of people, animals and plants.
What we do TODAY about turning off the emissions tap that is pouring GHG’s into the atmosphere is going to determine if we can buy sufficient time to adapt or not.
#ClimateCrisis https://cdn.nostr.build/i/d525fd8371acc5ab62e70348a8be028f53b032872eebab3f77116de99738c3cd.jpg

2023-08-04 02:31:23 UTC

Pay attention.
Heatwaves in winter are absolutely not normal.
Instrument readings:
CO2 atmospheric concentration 423.68 ppm
CH4 atmospheric concentration 1920.74 ppb
15.08°C average global temperature
(+1.28°C above preindustrial average of 13.8°C)
+21°C Ocean temperature (60S-60N)
Pictured 2m temperature anomaly across South America Aug 3 to Aug 6, 2023. https://cdn.nostr.build/i/58d70df688fbd95469cdf24fa39443a564b139f5ddc8f2414f2e840a79441f86.jpg

2023-08-02 02:33:57 UTC

Whether you use the HadCRUT5 or ERA5 data sets one thing is crystal clear we are very close to making 15.3°C (that is +1.5°C above the preindustrial average of 13.8°C) the new global average temperature.
There are horrors that await this shift.
Speaking of impacts at the current 15.03°C (+1.28°C above preindustrial) Prof Bob Watson said, referring to impacts at the poles: “I am very concerned. None of the observed changes so far (with a 1.2C temperature rise) are surprising. But they are more severe than we predicted 20 years ago, and more severe than the predictions of five years ago. We probably underestimated the consequences.”
With each incremental increase we move more and more of life on earth beyond adaptation limits.
We are in an emergency.
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy
https://www.threads.net/@climatehawkins/post/CvXGGtENe9T/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

2023-07-30 16:06:37 UTC

Important comment from Susanna Ditlevsen co-author of the now famous study on the AMOC collapse possibility.
Her comments (pictured)
(Source: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7090635497059803136)
https://void.cat/d/Ds6zPwaiHQZX8qM4pGi23d.webp

2023-07-29 05:59:18 UTC

Very sobering from Prof. Bob Watson as the impacts mount at +1.28°C of warming.
Quote source: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/25/frightens-climate-crisis-do-not-know-how-bad-wildfires-greece
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy https://cdn.nostr.build/i/9fd89d8b1b471e635d2a28305a765619971ae9bd771c4d8e3198a9e8a60797f4.jpg

2023-07-26 06:54:48 UTC

The #Mediterranean is on fire at the moment.
#Heatwaves #Europe
Data: http://www.ceam.es/ceamet/SST/SST-trend.html https://cdn.nostr.build/i/39b35a10836b3517fed033c9fbce30f448e79b500e241155d9ef52201b891bb4.jpg https://cdn.nostr.build/i/8cea57703b1782a8958ec2673d39169d25f37204db1d01f116346902e8e2f258.jpg

2023-07-24 11:39:29 UTC

⚠️ Early Warning
“The ongoing scorching heatwave across Europe and Turkey’s S and SE parts will finish with a deep upper wave emerging from the west, producing a major severe weather event across the Alpine region, northern Mediterranean, and central Balkan countries.”
#Europe #Heatwave #Storms
https://www.severe-weather.eu/weather-forecast/severe-weather-forecast-outlook-europe-july-24th-and-25th-2023-mk/

2023-07-22 18:24:59 UTC

Tourism on a heating planet.
The economic impact of where we are headed is coming into focus and this at 1.28°C of warming.
Heatwaves, fires & drought do not go hand in hand with having a relaxing summer holiday.
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves #WildFires
https://mapstodon.space/@zoom_earth/110758913353419053

2023-07-21 02:45:48 UTC

The truth is we are completely and utterly unprepared for a world at +1.5°C
We can hardly cope with the current +1.28°C
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/20/climate/how-extreme-heat-affects-workers-and-the-economy.html

2023-07-19 05:23:38 UTC

As heat domes sit over Asia, Europe and the US, this is a critical piece of #ClimateLiteracy regarding #Heatwaves
“Overnight minimum temperatures are expected to reach new highs. This is concerning because repeated high night-time temperatures are particularly dangerous for human health because the body is unable to recover from hot days, leading to increased cases of heart attacks and death. Whilst most of the attention focuses on daytime maximum temperatures, it is the overnight temperatures which have the biggest health risks, especially for vulnerable populations.
“We need the world to broaden its attention beyond the maximum temperature alone. In many locations where the maximum is reaching into the high 40°Cs and higher, the temperature may still be near 40°C at midnight. In these circumstances, the minimum temperature is more important for health and failing critical infrastructure during extreme heatwaves.”—John Nairn WMO extreme heat advisor.
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/heatwaves-show-importance-of-health-early-warnings-and-action-plans

2023-07-10 16:00:37 UTC

#Japan experiencing some extreme precipitation in the southeast.
Latest reporting with video visuals here https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/one-killed-heavy-rain-triggers-landslides-japan-2023-07-09/
⚠️ JMA issues warning for continued heavy downpours overnight and tomorrow for the same area. http://nostr.build/i/0df068e494d22dfdaef9fdeb8822b968a94402245f7633a1abf6f1776a583120.jpg

2023-07-10 14:17:44 UTC

World Meteorological Organization hosts special news briefing to address records in land and ocean temperatures.
Stay informed as the climate crisis continues to evolve.
Recording of live press briefing here: https://media.un.org/en/asset/k11/k11r4ljniw
Media release here: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/preliminary-data-shows-hottest-few-days-record-sea-surface-temperatures-unprecedented
#ClimateCrisis #ElNino #OceanHeating

2023-07-09 06:37:19 UTC

There is absolutely no way to “negotiate” with the physics of our dumping 39 Gt CO2 into the atmosphere per year.
This behaviour results in accelerating climate change as can be witnessed by the rise in the global average temperature to +1.27°C above pre industrial averages.
If we continue to treat earths atmosphere as a CO2 sewer we will all but ensure catastrophic climate change within the next 70 years.
We understand the physics. As a result we also understand what we need to do to avert catastrophe.
Here it is: We need to go from emitting 39 Gt CO2 per year to 19 Gt CO2 by 2030.
This means we need to look at EVERY emission source and avoid it or shift to non-carbon emitting energy sources.
If your business burns fossil fuels to generate revenue it would be prudent for the long term survival of your business to decouple revenue generation from the need to burn fossil fuels as a matter of urgency.
If you don’t do this voluntarily be assured that you will be forced to do so in the near future.
Voluntary transition is WAY less painful than forced transition as Air France-KLM just discovered.
Court ruling:
“𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘧𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘣𝘺 𝘢𝘪𝘳𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘴𝘶𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘥𝘢𝘮𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘢𝘴 𝘢 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘮𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘦𝘴 𝘸𝘢𝘴 𝘯𝘰 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘢𝘵 𝘢 𝘥𝘪𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/netherlands-can-cap-schiphol-flights-dutch-appeal-court-rules-2023-07-07/
Which will it be?
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis #Leadership

2023-07-08 04:34:08 UTC

We are at +1.27°C of warming. And CO2 atmospheric concentrations at at 424.68 ppm (June)
The resulting extreme weather events are now so common they hardly make the news anymore.
This is #Zaragoza, #Spain, on Thursday July 6th after an extreme precipitation event caused a flash flood trapping people in their cars as roads turned into raging rivers.
We are in a climate emergency.
(Source: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1788601/car-drivers-cling-to-roofs-flash-flood-spain)
#ClimateCrisis https://nostr.build/av/38ae8f994532e38e4ee5ca955d2af930873e41978bf1f1e47ac00071f0fec3b7.mov

2023-07-07 05:08:54 UTC

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About 13 https://nostr.build/i/305aae5be6ec39a8ed9f8e1eacd5c3320712a3e882262517804ca12275ea4239.jpg

2023-07-06 06:21:00 UTC

What https://nostr.build/i/6674da6ec3d58ec9f13137e213f2f4312b32a31142047fcaf6e884e86f4cd3b0.jpg

2023-07-05 09:16:12 UTC

Image Context.
2016 & 2020 were tied the hottest years on record.
On Aug 14, 2016 a daily global average 2m air temperature record was set at 16.92°C
On July 11, 2020 the highest average was 16.82°C
On Mon July 3, 2023 we broke the 2016 record with a new high of 17.01°C
Yesterday, Tuesday July 4, 2023👇🏻
🧪 https://nostr.build/i/e9597623e3c0b195b67da7f298369354c2c14e1a104ace7c5e3cbe03035cd7a2.jpg

2023-07-04 20:50:48 UTC

So there will be no Threads for the EU for the “foreseeable future.”
#Meta #Threads
Source: https://m.independent.ie/business/technology/no-instagram-threads-app-in-the-eu-irish-dpc-says-metas-new-twitter-rival-wont-be-launched-here/a1927220337.html https://nostr.build/i/7a48140fd40ea500f1f2cad15ac4d2c81cdd4473ca2ecbf96c000da504a2fded.jpg

2023-07-04 13:46:41 UTC

Yesterday we broke a record.
We recorded an average global temperature of +17.01ºC for the first time since instrumental records began.
With another month or so of heating to go before it turns down again 2023 may become the warmest year on record, beating out 2016.
https://void.cat/d/M7zyBX1D8osk8bMTurJMs2.webp

2023-07-04 12:33:08 UTC

The impacts of the #climatecrisis are being felt in #China there is no doubt about that:
"China will face multiple natural disasters in July, including floods, severe convection weather, typhoons and high temperatures, authorities warned."
https://english.news.cn/20230703/3dca8e89626d4c0e82556224ad37bee4/c.html

2023-07-04 03:17:14 UTC

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So the same as Twitter basically

2023-07-04 03:15:29 UTC

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So basically like Twitter https://nostr.build/i/cee4b23b4673a41cfa77db72c3cfe80822248e211ec192bbe938e9c1e4a2f3c5.jpg

2023-07-04 03:14:09 UTC

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So basically the same as Twitter https://nostr.build/i/cee4b23b4673a41cfa77db72c3cfe80822248e211ec192bbe938e9c1e4a2f3c5.jpg

2023-07-01 06:39:26 UTC

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With your re acidification — and here is where we stand on that front:
“Prior to the Industrial Revolution, average ocean pH was about 8.2. Today, average ocean pH is about 8.1. This might not seem like much of a difference, but the relationship between pH and acidity is not direct. Each decrease of one pH unit is a ten-fold increase in acidity. This means that the acidity of the ocean today, on average, is about 25% greater than it was during preindustrial times.” (https://www.epa.gov/ocean-acidification/understanding-science-ocean-and-coastal-acidification#:~:text=Solutions%20with%20low%20pH%20are,ocean%20pH%20is%20about%208.1.)

2023-07-01 05:53:32 UTC

The heating ocean and melting ice, a hallmark of the evolving climate crisis, are causing seas to rise. (Global average sea level has risen 21–24 centimeters since 1880. In 2021, global sea level set a new record high—97 mm (3.8 inches) above 1993 levels.)
There are many places where retreat is the becoming the only option, one of these places is Khun Samut Chin, just outside of Bangkok.
Here 1.1km to 2km of land has already been swallowed by the sea.
More here: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/01/just-four-pupils-left-how-the-sea-rose-up-on-a-thai-village
#ClimateCrisis #SeaLevelRise #Thailand https://nostr.build/i/23229c898154c72275f3d930043290b346545937d9fe8f13c6c96fcf3886f105.jpg https://nostr.build/i/0707a421842b18f83fd77d3649f34ea71f4d3452fb70dc94e6beadcaa5be2a09.webp

2023-06-28 06:27:35 UTC

How do we know that the #ElNino phase has arrived?
We use our instruments:
“Satellite- and ocean-based measurements of sea surface temperature are one way to detect the arrival of El Niño. Its signature also shows up in satellite measurements of sea surface height, which rises as ocean temperatures warm up. That’s because warmer water expands to fill more volume, while cooler water contracts.
The [image] depicts sea surface height anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean as observed from June 1–10, 2023. Shades of blue indicate sea levels that were lower than average; normal sea level conditions appear white; and reds indicate areas where the ocean stood higher than normal.”
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151481/el-nino-returns

2023-06-26 19:44:10 UTC

The heat has already “lasted 20 days”
https://news.yahoo.com/mexico-power-grid-alert-weeks-170347946.html
#Mexico #Heatwave

2023-06-25 04:50:33 UTC

The Texas heatwave as observed by NASA satellites.
CO2 424 ppm
+1.27°C above preindustrial
Source: https://eyes.nasa.gov/apps/earth/#/vitalsign?vitalsign=air_temperature&altid=0&animating=f&start=&end=#heatwave
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwave #Texas https://nostr.build/i/1dc0823c12d6f968898c42a3172505ed665d2e4dfdc157268a7d95bf93892ff9.jpg

2023-06-24 15:39:51 UTC

More than 40 million people in the US are currently under a heat alert and on some places the infrastructure is beginning to fail.
#Texas #Heatwave
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/24/texas-heatwave-high-temperatures-power

2023-06-24 08:39:28 UTC

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You should check out this guys feed they are very much on the ground
https://infosec.exchange/@kevinrothrock

2023-06-24 08:33:41 UTC

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The only place I get to see the tech talk is when I check the BlueSky team feed 😅 otherwise I live in the science feed where there is everything but tech talk https://nostr.build/i/615452c575cc3fc9b0281ffb748c9083769c8ec9f2d934f4a626bc2bef851c42.jpg

2023-06-23 14:50:27 UTC

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Hey that looks like a tracker he is wearing?

2023-06-23 08:23:52 UTC

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China as a whole is under *severe* heat strain!
41.8 Tanghekouzhen
41.2 Huairou
41.1 Zhaitang
40.6 Miyun
34.4 Foye Peak
41.8 Dagang
41.5 Tianjin
41.1 Sigi
40.9 Wu Qing
41.6 Beichen
41.4 Langfang
40.8 Gu'an
40.2 Zunhua
41.3 Wudi
40.8 Yang Xin
39.2 Jimo
41.7 Shandong
41.4 Xianghe
40.4 Tamada

2023-06-23 06:22:03 UTC

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You will notice in the text it makes reference to “Japan” this is a browser translation error. Here is the original text from the website:
市气象台2023年6月23日07时00分升级发布高温红色预警信号：预计，6月23日至25日本市高温天气仍将持续，大部分地区最高气温可达37～40℃，请注意防范。（预警信息来源：国家预警信息发布中心

2023-06-23 06:19:15 UTC

Today the Beijing Meteorological Bureau upgraded the city to a level red warning, the highest heatwave warning, as temperatures soared to just above 41°C
Beijing is home to 22 million people, who were urged to take emergency measures to prevent heatstroke. Stop outdoor work in the open air. Take protective measures for the elderly, the weak, the sick and the young and pay special attention to fire prevention.
Source: https://weather.cma.cn/web/alarm/11000041600000_20230623070925.html
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwave #Beijing https://nostr.build/i/1d399cfd5a3472a2ad8993a06ccfc219c9800659e8bef3d2c28a3446c0c46806.jpg

2023-06-22 06:46:34 UTC

⚠️ Early Warning — Dangerous Wet Bulb Temperatures forecast for parts of Texas on Friday.
Reminder: The actual max wet-bulb temp is lower than 35°C — about 31°C wet-bulb or 87°F at 100% humidity — even for young, healthy individuals. For older populations, who are more vulnerable to heat, it’s likely even lower. (See https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/japplphysiol.00738.2021)
Wet-bulb advisory: https://digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/?zoom=4&lat=37&lon=-96.5&layers=F000BTTTFTT&region=0&element=8&mxmz=false&barbs=false&subl=TFFFFF&units=english&wunits=nautical&coords=latlon&tunits=localt
#WetBulbTemperature #Texas #Heatwave #ClimateCrisis https://nostr.build/i/a3a8a89c067d523ee12e655f1e25cdfbd30622d094da96eacdda5dce3dd0de61.jpg

2023-06-21 08:06:49 UTC

South Africa has warmed +1.6ºC since 1881 and we are are on course to reach +4.4ºC of heating by 2100.
#ClimateLiteracy #ShowYourStripes #SouthAfrica
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/a0fd1b51-d628-485e-b451-492727c78c9d.png

2023-06-21 05:36:31 UTC

Mexico is going through some things.
#Heatwave #note1w90…9x6z

2023-06-20 20:10:57 UTC

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Of course, it is at the top end compared to the other models but still, we keep skating closer and closer to chaos. https://nostr.build/i/9575523d81c21489a25142cfa5b00cbbef01cc5ee6e616195fda275fb9a2fc74.jpg

2023-06-20 19:51:28 UTC

⚠️ Early Warning
Today BoM (Australia) released their June El Niño outlook. Take look at their Nino 3.4 probabilities for Sept-Oct-Nov.
Compare this to the top 8 El Niño’s since 1950 - we have never exceeded +3.0°C for Nino 3.4 😳
If this transpires 🌡️ in 2024 are going to be 🔥
BoM: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Bureau-model&region=NINO34
NOAA: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/dashboard.html
#ClimateCrisis #ElNino #EarlyWarnings https://nostr.build/i/4cf16aa2f7b4421a98a2eb542148089404d66d2c6342539565b1e23a5a3d93fe.jpg https://nostr.build/i/5a948cddb110205c5381cf2ab1c38f040d8eb16206c855e89c608e2c6842bd3b.jpg

2023-06-19 15:43:13 UTC

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https://nostr.build/i/75de9ea84e5d46f865d3711825d6b0f16636e955c23eb70b54ba26063fb4cee6.jpg

2023-06-19 15:40:07 UTC

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That is really interesting. This zooming into Croatia (2020 data)

2023-06-19 12:36:40 UTC

Did you know?
(Read more in the just released “State of the Climate in Europe 2022” https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11659)
#ClimateLiteracy #Europe https://nostr.build/i/2b6f1822a773f1386a7ed19901594c80e609ab87867697826b65f8499aa2f5de.jpg

2023-06-18 17:46:40 UTC

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Image credit: Figure 3.2, Pg 38, Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf

2023-06-18 16:15:18 UTC

From two countries in the Heat-Humidity risk zone:
Nepal struggles with blistering heatwave https://www.dw.com/en/nepal-struggles-with-blistering-heat-wave/a-65941491
Dozens die as northern India swelters under heatwave https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/17/dozens-die-as-northern-india-swelters-under-heatwave
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves #India #Nepal https://nostr.build/i/2e3fee30b05422a5401b2b430a3884ecea352afc3040ad6e603878bcf81e57df.jpg

2023-06-18 08:27:44 UTC

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So much work has been done on the risk profiles of different places. For example check out the extensive reporting here https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Annex-I.pdf
Of course, in some places the impacts are arriving faster but this gives a good framework if adaptation is a priority, which it should be of course.

2023-06-18 08:04:04 UTC

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Sure. There is more detail on the interplay here
https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3143/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/

2023-06-18 02:58:46 UTC

For every °C that Earth’s atmospheric temperature rises, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere can increase by about 7%. The more water vapor that air contains, the more energy it holds, fuelling intense storms, particularly over land resulting in more extreme weather events.
Pics from Citrusdal in the Western Cape, South Africa showing severe storm damage resulting in millions of rands in infrastructure damage and crop loses.
The only access road to the town has been washed away and essential supplies for the 5,000 residents is being airlifted.
CO2 concentrations 424 ppm
+1.27°C above preindustrial average
In the near term (2021-2040) the people and animals most at risk of extreme weather events are those who exist:
1) Close to their upper thermal limits
2) Along coastlines
3) Near ice or seasonal rivers
#ClimateLiteracy #EarlyWarnings #ExtremeWeather #Citrusdal #SouthAfrica https://nostr.build/i/33c60f8f21988f8b5f89f9bcfa7a6dfaeb139156664df7583af6e5ae16983437.jpg https://nostr.build/i/53c2282da8b2147dcdfc49699d2d77c5f0ca1ec8e5bdf890441f51724585f1b6.jpg https://nostr.build/i/09853af197c95bb9a5f431e22fbaf2fdae5e649e1663ea9aeb5fd98cf575ef58.jpg https://nostr.build/i/b5b12aaa2f1b3184db644dc0c41186bbd1b17c1af6015fcd7a693f7f28974924.jpg

2023-06-16 08:59:22 UTC

35 million people find themselves under a heat/red flag advisory in the US on Friday.
“Record-breaking heat index temperatures could reach 115 F (46 C) in cities such as Dallas, Houston and Austin, the Texas state capital, where officials have opened cooling centers in libraries and park buildings and urged people to drink plenty of water and stay out of the sun.”
Reporting: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/stifling-heat-wave-grip-us-south-over-holiday-weekend-2023-06-15/
Weather.gov advisory: https://www.weather.gov
CO2 concentrations 424 ppm
🌡️ +1.27°C above preindustrial
#Heatwave https://nostr.build/i/3867b8059e6ad75c66c088b08e9c25cd32c44174f45c3348ca92f9696b551828.jpg

2023-06-16 03:43:53 UTC

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This is wild

2023-06-15 15:57:04 UTC

⚠️ Early Warning
There is some serious heat building in north east China with a forecast high of 40ºC in Beijing for Friday June 16
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/1e7ef818-b51b-4fcd-aeae-edf3eb1f27cc.png

2023-06-15 07:17:40 UTC

NOAA’s May 2023 Global Climate Report has been released.
The oceans registered their hottest May in 174 years
CO2 = 424.34 ppm
🌡️ = +1.27°C above pre-industrial
Data: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202305
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis #OceanHeat https://nostr.build/i/ab179daf50ac5677c1439abb2feff16b85efdebb8fb4ebb477cbee98d20def1d.jpg

2023-06-14 17:26:54 UTC

A timeline cleanse.
This majestic crowned eagle, Africa’s most powerful, was released just a short distance from where are after a dramatic rescue a few days ago.
These eagles are near threatened as a result of habitat loss, mainly forests.
Hamba kahle special friend. https://nostr.build/i/e541b7d553984c6adf1fba40a6a434209b1a9aed70ea08dad9fcdad87417209a.jpg

2023-06-14 01:47:10 UTC

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Here was the impact from the 2015/16 event in our region.
https://gfcs.wmo.int/sites/default/files/Sithole_El%20Nino%20Impacts%20in%20Southern%20Africa.pdf
The City of Cape Town came extremely close to its water Day Zero
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Town_water_crisis

2023-06-14 01:39:32 UTC

Early Warning
We are in brand new territory:
“When you have an El Niño occurring on top of the long-term warming trend, it’s like a double whammy.”—Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist at The Nature Conservancy.
Any business that does not, as a matter of urgency, become climate literate, is going to experience considerable pain.
“Dartmouth scientists estimated that the 1997-1998 El Niño led to $5.7 trillion in lost gross domestic product the following five years. Their modeling estimates that by the end of this century, El Niños will have blocked some $84 trillion in GDP.”
Climate disruption is real and is coming at us at break neck speed.
How ready are you?
#futureofwork #disruption #climateliteracy
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-el-nino-climate-change-extreme-weather/

2023-06-13 18:44:11 UTC

This is great piece by Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf on 🐦) on the current ocean heat phenomenon
https://www.wfla.com/weather/climate-classroom/spike-in-ocean-heat-stuns-scientists-have-we-breached-a-climate-tipping-point/
#ClimateLiteracy #OceanHeat #ElNino

2023-06-13 16:12:01 UTC

🌡️ UK Heat-Health Alert
As of today Tuesday 13 June, the Heat-Health Alerts issued by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Met Office have been extended until 9am on Monday 19 June.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/heat-health-alerts-issued-by-ukhsa-and-the-met-office
#ClimateCrisis #HeatAlert #Heatwave

2023-06-12 18:55:02 UTC

🌀#Biparjoy is gearing up to be a major incident and evacuations underway as the storm approaches.
Detailed reporting here: https://www.dawn.com/news/1759332

2023-06-12 05:10:20 UTC

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#Biparjoy

2023-06-12 04:35:17 UTC

Early warnings:
The #India Meteorological Department issues storm and wind track for tropical cyclone #Biparjpy with landfall expected near Jakhau Port, Gujarat around noon on Thursday June 15 https://nostr.build/i/85786d55a0e7549dc9198000593aa9decdf17bccad22420288737c03f794dd61.jpg

2023-06-11 08:38:23 UTC

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Just a correction in the text above this should read:
“This causes the warm surface waters that are usually found in the EASTERN Pacific along the coasts of Ecuador/Peru/Chile to spread WESTWARD along the equator¹³⁵. As a result, the ocean heat that is normally stored in the eastern Pacific is released to the atmosphere in the central and western Pacific²⁴. This affects the global weather patterns and climate”
The east/west flow was written incorrectly

2023-06-11 07:58:36 UTC

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Hey isn’t this at Rinkai Park?

2023-06-11 05:52:03 UTC

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This is correct.
We have just come out of a longer than normal cooler La Niña period.
We are now moving into the warmer El Niño phase. The last El Niño event we had was in 2015/16 which was described as a “super El Niño” as a result of the heat it created.
Btw here is how Sea Surface Temperatures are measured https://argo.ucsd.edu
The Argo floats are currently collecting about 12,000 data profiles each month (400 a day).

2023-06-11 04:43:42 UTC

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Why the concern with current sea surface temperatures?
”Just the top few metres of our oceans store as much energy as the entirety of our atmosphere. I'm very concerned for later this year into 2024.”—Dr Thomas Smith
(https://twitter.com/DrTELS/status/1650562388377174020)

2023-06-11 04:42:21 UTC

Climate Literacy:
During an El Niño event, the trade winds that normally blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific weaken or even reverse direction³⁵.
This causes the warm surface waters that are usually found in the western Pacific along the coasts of Ecuador/Peru/Chile to spread eastward along the equator¹³⁵. As a result, the ocean heat that is normally stored in the western Pacific is released to the atmosphere in the central and eastern Pacific²⁴. This affects the global weather patterns and climate¹²³⁵.
Sources:
(1) El Niño: Pacific Wind and Current Changes Bring Warm, Wild Weather. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/ElNino.
(2) What are El Niño and La Niña, and how do they change the weather?. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64192508.
(3) El Niño - National Geographic Society. https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/el-nino/.
(4) El Niño and Extreme Ocean Heat Are About to Clash for the 2023 .... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/el-nino-and-extreme-ocean-heat-are-about-to-clash-for-the-2023-hurricane-season/.
(5) El Niño and La Niña: Frequently asked questions. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-frequently-asked-questions. https://nostr.build/i/a3af5d222cf6216d2ce84cd3b82e4dee1a2c372f961cd9f4a92dfbed35132639.jpg

2023-06-10 16:04:48 UTC

Something unusual just happened in the southern hemisphere.
#ClimateLiteracy #EarlyWarning https://nostr.build/i/ed17ec9f0dff6c9adebf0759f075b8c068785155c39fa062df9d6ee2094f8b11.jpg

2023-06-10 06:20:33 UTC

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Data sources:
1) Previous 1.5° anomaly breaches: https://nitter.moomoo.me/hausfath/status/1667206122594525184#m
2) OP Graphic: https://nitter.moomoo.me/EliotJacobson/status/1667165187894558721#m

2023-06-10 06:19:57 UTC

#ClimateLiteracy: The 1.5° limit applies to the average temperature over a year, and passing it would mean that the average will have been sustained for several years.
That said, we have crossed the 1.5°C anomaly on hundreds of individual days, after which it has fallen back below 1.5°
Most of these days occurred in 2016 & 2020.
Now as the heat begins to load up as a result of the maturing El Niño we will see many individual days again cross 1.5°
For example look at this. In 2023 we breached 1.5° on March 6-11 and again yesterday (June 9th) https://nostr.build/i/d7c43f760059d1c6f1f08af053c66757400bad01bba349f4db7203b569967fca.jpg

2023-06-08 15:22:02 UTC

Early Warning
NOAA has announced the start of the 2023/24 #ElNino
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
#ClimateLiteracy https://nostr.build/i/699b1ca455a8431813b48f5c5e876d3dae25f2e380fedafbbfb2cee9908d9a5b.jpg

2023-06-07 06:47:59 UTC

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I must tell you that I actually made a decision not to travel to events to speak anymore 😅 - I have lost some gigs as a result but the 20/21 experience have made events more open to hybrid scenarios.
On screen with a camera facing the audience and a person acting as a connector in the venue has been working for me.
It’s still surreal to be able to be on screen at two separate events in two different countries on the same day considering that was impossible before!

2023-06-07 04:55:58 UTC

Precipitation records tumble in #Portugal
Extreme precipitation events go hand-in-hand with our heating trajectory. The amount of water vapour in the atmosphere increases by about 7% for each 1° of warming.
Current status: +1.27°C above pre-industrial https://nostr.build/i/099c4e1b0356abdea5c3b9f7c48e85859532ed0196d6082b79e4e60588bab6ea.jpg

2023-06-06 08:32:16 UTC

Bureau of Meteorology (BoM, Austraila) becomes the first to issue an El Nino ALERT.
Communication here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/
#ElNino #ClimateLiteracy

2023-06-06 06:52:29 UTC

Excessive heat events are now becoming so common that it’s hard to keep up.
Some hardly get any coverage.
Here is an Excessive Heat Warning in place for northwest #PuertoRico today. Heat range expected 42.2° to 47.7°C accompanied by high humidity (a wet bulb temperature event)
May 2023: CO2 424 ppm
Avg Global Temp: +1.27°C (above preindustrial)
Data source: https://www.weather.gov/sju/
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwave https://nostr.build/i/b389d99f8853b876bb1d9afcf659bb2dfc5ae615d48992646784adcd4e789e97.jpg

2023-06-06 05:53:35 UTC

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You will find this interview interesting as it provides some insight into their AI approach and philosophy.
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2020/08/apple-explains-how-it-uses-machine-learning-across-ios-and-soon-macos/

2023-06-05 16:22:58 UTC

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Case in point. If this is not somehow solved, this here will remain a niche network.
If you compare the new arrivals feed here to BlueSky for example it literally is like night and day. https://nostr.build/i/3968763ad42546c445d9d5aef8dfab977b32e5930349c0b24957eb983bc15ffc.jpg

2023-06-05 05:33:57 UTC

How is your country doing when it comes to matching its current emission reduction policies to its 2030 pledges?
Here is our situation in #SouthAfrica
Check your country here: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65754296
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy #Emissions https://nostr.build/i/b353874866b7bf51a17bedaa0e03f10deaa27c1133e73366da1d1996a5ba0f2f.jpg

2023-06-03 05:02:27 UTC

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*many 🙄

2023-06-03 05:01:39 UTC

Prediction: The way of life in May places is going to be *severely* disrupted as we continue our heating trajectory.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/06/02/heat-school-closings-northeast-climate/
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves

2023-06-02 05:48:14 UTC

Human migration on a heating planet.
We know from the latest science that 100’s of millions of people will find themselves in physical environments where heat and humidity will be an existential threat as we continue to heat.
There is no question that this will no doubt motivate migration. The sooner we understand the dynamics of this the better.
So it’s really import that research like this is seeing the light of day.
https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000214
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves #Migration

2023-06-01 18:05:37 UTC

Temperature records tumbled in #Canada yesterday
https://nitter.moomoo.me/Pat_wx/status/1664036214003859459#m

2023-06-01 14:47:20 UTC

#Japan has just experienced it’s warmest spring (MAM) since records began in 1898.
Temps were 1.59°C higher than average this year.
Source: Japan Meteorological Agency

2023-06-01 09:25:52 UTC

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We help companies adopt location independence as a resilience strategy in some of our work.
One of the things we run up against repeatedly is the lack of digital literacy and fluency in senior managment, which, as a result wants to mentor and work in-person mostly. (See pic. Data source here http://www.wfhresearch.com/)
The ability to “speak digital” and “work out loud” in digital environments is a non-negotiable skill if you are going to work from anywhere.
The big RTO (return to office) push is mostly coming from this age group. https://nostr.build/i/e5494226f341dfbfd1996d7c1cb59ed611757aa99c5517f558c824f3a3bf6ee0.jpg

2023-06-01 09:08:52 UTC

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This transition is actually fascinating to watch especially in the US

2023-06-01 04:43:26 UTC

As #ClimateChaos becomes a reality in many places we need robust #EarlyWarningSystems in place to help people stay safe.
You HAVE to make an effort to understand what is projected for the area you are in and begin a conversation about what actions to take as a result.
Here is the Four-Pillar Framework the WMO is working on and serves as an excellent template for your community and family.
Source: https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/overview-of-early-warnings-all-executive-action-plan-2023%E2%80%932027
#ClimateLiteracy #Adaptation https://nostr.build/i/339169b76a3b847b0590a2777f61c6e65de52a72dd0a527390f63ed6c5a58f3e.jpg