BitopiaLand on Nostr: Hard choice for Asian countries Asian countries are about to make the most difficult ...
Hard choice for Asian countries
Asian countries are about to make the most difficult choice in their existence. They have to choose between the superpowers China and the US. Neutrality is probably not an option…
China is the behemoth next door, while the US is the superpower on the other side of the world. How to make this choice?
One thing that speaks in favour of siding with the US is that it is the superpower on the other side of the world. This means it will never be able to conquer territory in Asia because it is simply too far away to maintain these conquests.
With China, Asian countries can never be 100% sure, because countries can’t be sure what other countries are really thinking.
China on the other hand is by far the largest economy of Asia and many Asian countries already depend on it for their economic well-being. This is likely to increase in the decades to come…
Expect economic heft to be China’s preferred tool to influence and draw in its neighbours into its sphere of influence. With countries that depend most on China for their exports to be the first to side with China against the US.
Indonesia, The Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia export more to China than they export to the US. These countries can therefore be expected to deviate more towards China over time.
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India all export more to the US than to China.
India will likely be one of the few Asian countries that remains neutral and will follow its own independent course. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are tightly knit into the US sphere of influence (and security architecture) which most likely plays a role in their higher exports to the US.
It will be curious to see how this develops over time as China develops further and actively tries to increase Asian countries' dependence on its economy.
Asian countries are about to make the most difficult choice in their existence. They have to choose between the superpowers China and the US. Neutrality is probably not an option…
China is the behemoth next door, while the US is the superpower on the other side of the world. How to make this choice?
One thing that speaks in favour of siding with the US is that it is the superpower on the other side of the world. This means it will never be able to conquer territory in Asia because it is simply too far away to maintain these conquests.
With China, Asian countries can never be 100% sure, because countries can’t be sure what other countries are really thinking.
China on the other hand is by far the largest economy of Asia and many Asian countries already depend on it for their economic well-being. This is likely to increase in the decades to come…
Expect economic heft to be China’s preferred tool to influence and draw in its neighbours into its sphere of influence. With countries that depend most on China for their exports to be the first to side with China against the US.
Indonesia, The Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia export more to China than they export to the US. These countries can therefore be expected to deviate more towards China over time.
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India all export more to the US than to China.
India will likely be one of the few Asian countries that remains neutral and will follow its own independent course. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are tightly knit into the US sphere of influence (and security architecture) which most likely plays a role in their higher exports to the US.
It will be curious to see how this develops over time as China develops further and actively tries to increase Asian countries' dependence on its economy.