4σ on Nostr: The 2025 Bitcoiners understand miner centralization is a big problem, & are actively ...
The 2025 Bitcoiners understand miner centralization is a big problem, & are actively promoting using your own templates in pools with Ocean & Datum, owning your own hashrate & custody your own keys, etc. All the ones I know at least. Some I know are even actively working in innovative startups to address this, & many other centralization-related problems in the Bitcoin space.
But I think this is why they aren't overly concerned about it: play fiat games, win fiat prizes.
If US miner companies are choosing "upfront, steady, reliable" fiat payments over BTC subsidies from lotteries, for US compliance reasons, & the risk is they will censor transactions by not including them in blocks, also for compliance: then they don't understand Bitcoin...yet. They will learn it the hard way, & as painful as if you ripped off Bane's mask.
So let's play this game out, in 2 ways:
1) The "smart way":
Action: US gov quietly tells Foundry what is compliant, & orders them to keep it secret that they are excluding transactions from their blocks, as in nothing about it reported publicly, & especially nothing unusual noted or marked for compliance in the blocks they mine.
Fallout: Some plebs start reporting on Nostr (around same time, within 15 minutes) that they literally can't get included in blocks, no matter how crazy high a fee they set, or trying different nodes/wallets/utxos. They ask around why that is, & some well-seasoned hodlers/devs/OGs offer to take a look at the transaction/address hash. Most are grateful for offer, but reject due to (valid) privacy concerns, however some gladly accept as they only have KYC Bitcoin anyway & they are just trying to spend their money on normal things ("I have nothing to hide anyway"). It takes a few hours, maybe half a day, but eventually the 2025 Bitcoiners figure out that something seems very wrong: certain nodes can't seem to get any transactions mined, or certain IP address spaces can't, or certain wallets/pubkeys/utxos can't, or certain addresses to/from can't, etc. Meanwhile, it is noticed that majority of blocks recently being found are from Foundry, & that the censored plebs only end up getting their transaction mined in the recently few non-Foundry blocks.
Well now the game is afoot: Every hodler sounds the alarm Bitcoin is "officially" broken, a patch is made available (for the 2 most recent major versions) that updates consensus rules to not verify blocks from Foundry, & enough (not all, I'm well aware) hodlers with economic nodes work quickly to apply the patch on their node. This fork takes days to finish, but during that time anyway, Foundry is memed to mempool hell on social media, their stock does big red dildos, miners pull out from that pool, & we all celebrate their bankruptcy, just like we did with FTX. Yes, I'm glossing over the pain of those censored during this time, & the pain of many mined transactions re-entering mempool, but they get back their freedom thanks to the pleb node runners.
2) The dumb way:
Action: US gov announces Bitcoin is bad mkay, but don't be afraid, the gov is here to help. They tell all US mining companies must comply with new block templates from them/Foundry/whoever, & do so within a time frame of 2 weeks. Their compliance will be flagged for verification by some note or mark in the blocks they mine.
Fallout: OK, Great! Fork incoming that we can address in several ways without rush, Bitcoin "officially" dies, price drops to unseen levels in halvings, 2025 hodlers scoop up sats on the cheap (for once!), & the smart US mining companies who are real Bitcoiners make smart choices within 2 weeks, or fuck around & find out. Yes, I'm glossing over the pain of those fiat mindset miners who make dumb choices, but perhaps they learn their lesson this time:
Bitcoin humbles all. Yes, even you.
Power to the Plebs
But I think this is why they aren't overly concerned about it: play fiat games, win fiat prizes.
If US miner companies are choosing "upfront, steady, reliable" fiat payments over BTC subsidies from lotteries, for US compliance reasons, & the risk is they will censor transactions by not including them in blocks, also for compliance: then they don't understand Bitcoin...yet. They will learn it the hard way, & as painful as if you ripped off Bane's mask.
So let's play this game out, in 2 ways:
1) The "smart way":
Action: US gov quietly tells Foundry what is compliant, & orders them to keep it secret that they are excluding transactions from their blocks, as in nothing about it reported publicly, & especially nothing unusual noted or marked for compliance in the blocks they mine.
Fallout: Some plebs start reporting on Nostr (around same time, within 15 minutes) that they literally can't get included in blocks, no matter how crazy high a fee they set, or trying different nodes/wallets/utxos. They ask around why that is, & some well-seasoned hodlers/devs/OGs offer to take a look at the transaction/address hash. Most are grateful for offer, but reject due to (valid) privacy concerns, however some gladly accept as they only have KYC Bitcoin anyway & they are just trying to spend their money on normal things ("I have nothing to hide anyway"). It takes a few hours, maybe half a day, but eventually the 2025 Bitcoiners figure out that something seems very wrong: certain nodes can't seem to get any transactions mined, or certain IP address spaces can't, or certain wallets/pubkeys/utxos can't, or certain addresses to/from can't, etc. Meanwhile, it is noticed that majority of blocks recently being found are from Foundry, & that the censored plebs only end up getting their transaction mined in the recently few non-Foundry blocks.
Well now the game is afoot: Every hodler sounds the alarm Bitcoin is "officially" broken, a patch is made available (for the 2 most recent major versions) that updates consensus rules to not verify blocks from Foundry, & enough (not all, I'm well aware) hodlers with economic nodes work quickly to apply the patch on their node. This fork takes days to finish, but during that time anyway, Foundry is memed to mempool hell on social media, their stock does big red dildos, miners pull out from that pool, & we all celebrate their bankruptcy, just like we did with FTX. Yes, I'm glossing over the pain of those censored during this time, & the pain of many mined transactions re-entering mempool, but they get back their freedom thanks to the pleb node runners.
2) The dumb way:
Action: US gov announces Bitcoin is bad mkay, but don't be afraid, the gov is here to help. They tell all US mining companies must comply with new block templates from them/Foundry/whoever, & do so within a time frame of 2 weeks. Their compliance will be flagged for verification by some note or mark in the blocks they mine.
Fallout: OK, Great! Fork incoming that we can address in several ways without rush, Bitcoin "officially" dies, price drops to unseen levels in halvings, 2025 hodlers scoop up sats on the cheap (for once!), & the smart US mining companies who are real Bitcoiners make smart choices within 2 weeks, or fuck around & find out. Yes, I'm glossing over the pain of those fiat mindset miners who make dumb choices, but perhaps they learn their lesson this time:
Bitcoin humbles all. Yes, even you.
Power to the Plebs
quoting nevent1q…5r0fDude. 41% and rising?
Bitcoiners from 2015 would have resolved this by now.