BitcoinFriday on Nostr: 🧠Quote(s) of the week: 'If you made $500.000 per day, every single day since the ...
🧠Quote(s) of the week:
'If you made $500.000 per day, every single day since the Great Pyramids were built, you would have less than half of what the US government has borrowed since June.'
Although this quote is a bit outdated it is actually nuts when you contemplate it...perspective is nice when it comes to large numbers.
Let me do the math for you: 4.700(years) * 365 (days/year) * 500.000$ (/day) = 857.750.000.000 - Less than a Trillion
(barring the likely inaccuracy of our understanding of the Pyramids timeline)
Which means you would still have less than 3% of what the US government has in total debt.
No matter your thoughts on Bitcoin, think about those numbers for a minute and let that sink in.
After that, you should probably buy some Bitcoin.
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
Before we start I want to share some deep knowledge:
"Bitcoin didn't appear out of thin air - it is the result of decades of work. Many digital currency projects failed before they succeeded. Understanding how we got here will help you understand where we're going. Learn the history behind Bitcoin here:" - Jameson Lopp
https://www.lopp.net/bitcoin-information/history.html
16th of April:
➡️Bitcoin Core 27.0 released:
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/release-notes/release-notes-27.0.md
TLDR: Bitcoin has now better privacy by default. An important and welcome change to Bitcoin core, by finally supporting encryption between nodes. This is a massive improvement.
For the technical readers of the Weekly Recap, I would recommend to following article and podcast
https://stephanlivera.com/episode/433/
https://bips.dev/324/
➡️Google has opened a new office in El Salvador to support the country’s digital transformation and modernization of government services. Furthering President Bukele’s goal of turning the country into a tech hub. Bukele managed to lower crime, a growing economy, and higher foreign investment + more tourism.
Eat that IMF
➡️BYBIT RESEARCH: "With only 2 million Bitcoin left, if we assume a daily inflow of $500 million to Bitcoin Spot ETFs, the equivalent of around 7,142 bitcoins will leave exchange reserves daily, suggesting that it will only take nine months to consume all of the remaining reserves." -Bitcoin News
➡️ "$400 Billion Banco Do Brasil holds BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF
It is the BIGGEST financial institution in Latin America!"- Bitcoin Archive
➡️"Mr. 100" is an unknown entity known for buying 100 Bitcoin every day since Nov 2, 2022. They now hold 60.600 BTC (!) worth $3.8 Billion ($1.6 Billion in profit)
Due to the size of the investment, many people speculate this is a nation-state buying Bitcoin. But who is it?" - Bram Kanstein
Great thread: https://twitter.com/bramk/status/1780243283060371717
I personally and I really do hope it is Brunei. They are mining Bitcoin and hopefully also buying Bitcoin.
But probably it is an exchange. Some people say this is an exchange wallet by Upbit Global.
17th of April:
➡️'Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs to start trading by 30th April and could bring in $25 billion: Matrixport and OSL reports.' -Radar
➡️Last week I wrote a bit on UFC lightweight Renato Moicano: "If you care about your country, read Ludwig Von Mises' 6 lessons of the Austrian Economic School motherf*ckers".
He was referring to, it’s a series of six lectures Mises gave in Argentina in 1958, later combined into a book: “Economic Policy: Thoughts for Today and Tomorrow”.
'Fifty years after his death, Mises gets more downloads in three days than what 95% of living economists get in their entire lifetime. Regurgitating fiat propaganda may give you fiat jobs & titles, but pursuing truth gives you immortality.'- Saeifedean Ammous
➡️Blackrock spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT closing the $2.3B gap on Grayscale's GBTC in assets, could be ahead by month's end, according to Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas
➡️ Now that the halving has passed us, and Bitcoin has become the hardest money in the world. Bitcoin’s most explosive gains are typically post-halving. Great chart from VanEck. (Picture 1)
18th of April:
Just the IMF putting time, effort, and money into reporting on Bitcoin.
They published a paper on Bitcoin cross-border flows, and here are three major takeaways:
'1.) The study provides evidence that increased Bitcoin activity occurs as investors move away from risk assets and supports the findings of other studies that Bitcoin can be used to hedge global uncertainty.'
2.) The study concludes that people appear to be turning to Bitcoin to flee instability in their local economies and currencies and to circumvent capital controls.
3.) The findings highlight that Bitcoin flows are typically larger in emerging and developing markets, like Argentina and Venezuela, compared to advanced economies with sophisticated financial markets.' - Sam Callahan
Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2024/04/05/A-Primer-on-Bitcoin-Cross-Border-Flows-Measurement-and-Drivers-547429#:~:text=Bitcoin%20cross%2Dborder%20flows%20respond,to%20avoid%20capital%20flow%20restrictions
To sum it up the IMF just said :
1. Bitcoin is increasingly used as a hedge against risk
2. Bitcoin is used as freedom money in autocratic regimes
3. Bitcoin’s biggest use case is the global south to protect against currency debasement and financial instability
Cope from the IMF? The IMF just realized that Bitcoin nullifies the need for their existence.
For sure it is a surprising study, but I am not surprised by the outcome.
➡️Riot has started mining Bitcoin at its new Corsicana Texas facility.
With a capacity of 1 GW, it is projected to be the biggest in the world.' - Pierre Rochard
➡️ Jamie Dimon says Bitcoin is a fraud and a Ponzi scheme.
- JP Morgan funds hold Bitcoin
- JPMorgan, His firm is an Authorized Participant (AP) for the BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF and gets paid for trading “fraud”.
➡️Binance dumps over 16,000 Bitcoin to back up their SAFU fund with ~$1 billion USDC
➡️'When Nobel Peace Prize nominee Félix Maradiaga tells you that Bitcoin is truly a tool for freedom after discussing the egregious human rights violations carried out by the Ortega regime, you listen.'
https://twitter.com/btcpolicyorg/status/1780983728858087893
Bitcoin serves as a tool to ensure human rights. Important for all world citizens, but especially for those living in Africa & South America.
19th - 20th of April:
Now I can explain to you what the halving is, but I rather let some Bitcoin OG's do that:
'The Bitcoin halving is not a day to celebrate because the price will immediately go up (it probably won't) but because it's a quadrennial reminder that we now have a means of saving free of debasement and resistant to censorship. For that I'm thankful.
Thank you, Satoshi' - Vijay Boyapati
'The Bitcoin halving is an anticipated event, one of those Bitcoin holidays that happen every once in a while. Along with Soft Fork Activation and various financial instrument introduction days, it's one of those not-quite-predictable days that occur every few years which give Bitcoiners reason to pay attention and mainstream media to speculate.'- Jimmy Song.
'Every node on the Bitcoin network divides the block height by a fixed issuance halving interval, 210,000 blocks. Rounding to the nearest whole number gives us how many halvings to apply to the 50 BTC initial per-block subsidy.
Halvings are applied by "right shifting" the binary representation of the subsidy, where the last bit is dropped and a zero is prepended in front. Each right shift applied causes a halving of issuance.' - Pierre Rochard (picture 2)
Andreas Antonopoulos explaining the halving:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwkRsp0gqX4&feature=youtu.be
The halving block, block 840.000, had 37.6 Bitcoin worth of fees... It wasn't just blocked 840,000 that had high fees, over the next 5 blocks, we had fees of 4.486, 6.99, 16.068, 24.008, and 29.821 BTC respectively. The fees are the highest it's ever been. This situation in Bitcoin is unprecedented.
If you want to know more on this topic (high fees - post halving) I highly recommend:
https://twitter.com/jimmysong/status/1781518918001078441
➡️'In the first 60 blocks since the 4th Bitcoin halving, miners have collected 860.2 BTC in transaction fees alone. Equivalent to over $54m, this has already smashed the previous single-day all-time high transaction fees of $24m.' - Jameson Lopp
21st of April:
'In the 130 blocks post-halving, Bitcoin miners earned 1,675 BTC ($109 million)
Of this, 75% (1,262 BTC worth $82 million) came from transaction fees.
For context, miners received 1,349 BTC in fees from April 1 to April 19.' - Bitcoin News
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
👉🏽 'US Treasury Bills now yield 4 TIMES more than the S&P 500's dividend, the most since the Dot-com bubble.
Over the last 100 years, a multiple this high has only been seen ONE time.
By comparison, even in the 2008 Financial Crisis, this metric peaked at ~3x.
With interest rate cuts being priced out, we likely see interest rates on bonds continue to push higher.
This will keep US T-Bill rates elevated and perhaps push this ratio to its 2000 highs.
Yet another Dot-com bubble similarity.'- TKL
🏦Banks:
👉🏽no news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
On the 16th of April:
👉🏽You are being told that we are in the greatest economy ever. Yet, every indicator shows we are in a terrible failing economy across the board, the US, Europe, etc. Stagflation is here and will only accelerate.
Although this is just a graph/ratio, AI will surely save us, right guys? (Picture 3)
We all know what followed, right? Populist leaders (please look around in your country) and a world war...
“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.”
- Ernest Hemingway
The US military is in a symbiotic relationship with the Dollar. If one part fails, it will drag the other down. Do understand that once Rome also spent more on 'defense' than others. Fiat currency is always about political faith. Always.
(Picture 4)
👉🏽"The IMF has cut Germany's economic growth in 2024 to 0.2%, after projecting a 0.5% rise in its January forecast. Europe's biggest economy is predicted to have the weakest growth of all G7 industrialized nations for the current year. For 2025, the IMF revised German growth to 1.3% from the previous 1.6%. IMF said this is due to persistently weak consumer sentiment. In the long term, the IMF's main concerns for Germany are structural problems such as the decline in the working population and obstacles to investment." - Holger Zschaepitz
I think the first time I spoke publicly on this matter was like three years ago. Germany is a slow-motion train wreck without cheap Russian natural gas. The green agenda isn't working, closing nuclear power plants isn't working...Europe's engine is on the ropes.
Oh well, this is an IMF so-called forecast.
👉🏽'The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage in the US rises to 7.43%, a new 2024 high.
We have not seen mortgage rates this high since early December 2023, when the Fed said rate cut talks were "premature."
This means that the monthly mortgage payment on a $500,000 house with 20% down is now $3,500/month.
The $3,500/month figure also does not include property taxes, insurance, or maintenance.
Meanwhile, the median US home is now selling for a whopping $417,700.'- TKL
I guess it is a great time to be a rental property owner. Yikes!
This thought-provoking thread has a very counterintuitive, contrarian take:
https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard/status/1780679971146731837
TLDR: 'This sums it up pretty well. Sound money helps slow the process, too. The fiat advent coupled with Keynesian asset inflation policies created a perfect storm. The rise of Chinese deflation exporting was the nail in the coffin because it made this reflexive.' -Nelson Alves
On the 17th of April:
👉🏽'The US is expected to collect $2.9 trillion in tax receipts during FY2024 as of Q1.
Government expenditures over that period are expected to be over $9.7 trillion.
The thousands of dollars you remitted to TurboTax today won't cover even 1/3rd of US expenditures.'- Joe Consorti
👉🏽UK Inflation at 3.2% — the lowest in more than 2 years from a peak of 11.1%
On the 18th of April:
👉🏽'Want to be in the top 1% in the United States?
You now need a net worth of a whopping $5.8 MILLION.
This is up 15% from the $5.0 million threshold seen just one year ago.
The top 1% threshold in the US is only lower than Monaco, Luxembourg, and Switzerland.
As equity markets and real estate prices have skyrocketed, the wealth gap is widening.
Since 2020, the wealth of the top 1% in the US has risen by almost $15 trillion to a record $44.6 trillion.
The rich are getting richer faster than ever before.' -TKL
👉🏽IMF Prepares Financial Revolution – Say Goodbye To The Dollar
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/imf-prepares-financial-revolution-say-goodbye-dollar
The only thing I can say on this is:
- I am not surprised
- Please reject CBDCs with everything you have. The centralization of digital currencies will never work!
- The IMF is not elected!
Anyway, no need to panic whatsoever. The IMF probably goes before the dollar. The dollar is and will be the number one (fiat) currency of the world.
On the 20th of April:
👉🏽'The Congressional Budget Office expects that about $20 trillion in net new federal debt will be issued over the next decade.
As part of this, they assume 1) no recessions but also that 2) that interest rates will go down starting here in 2024.
Otherwise, probably >$20 trillion.'
Now go back to the top of this article and read the start quote.
(Picture 5)
'Over the same next decade:
At current production rates and prices, about $2.5 trillion in new refined gold will be created. Prices and supply rates could change.
At current prices, about $70 billion in new bitcoin will be created. Prices could change, but not supply rates.' - Lyn Alden
On top of that:
👉🏽'The U.S. has $4.4 Trillion annual revenue, prints $1 Trillion every 100 days and there is still somehow a need to vote for $100 Billion aid to countries on top of everything else. House approves aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. House Rejects Border Security Bill.
The U.S. doesn’t have a revenue problem, it has a government spending problem.
'A child born in 2024 in the U.S. is born with ~$85,000 debt.
The median U.S. bank account balance is $8,000 and over half of the population has less than $500 in savings.
So, printing $ Trillions and sending $100s of Billions abroad is not without consequences.' - Gabor Gurbacs
Politicians celebrating sending another $60B to fund a foreign war. Perfect more DEBT!
Context:
$34.6 trillion in debt.
123% Debt to GDP
Nearly a $3 trillion deficit this year.
video: https://twitter.com/MDBitcoin/status/1781786149071032712
Separate money and state.
To sum everything up from above:
The US hasn’t generated a surplus consistently since the 1990s.
The trend over the past 50 years has been:
Larger and larger monthly deficits.
Monthly surpluses are getting few and far between.
That’s why the debt can only continue rising exponentially.
Deficit is destiny. That means increasing the rate of debasement of the US$.
21st of April:
'Who is supposed to pay for pensions and healthcare entitlements in Italy in a few years?
BTW, it’s a similar picture in Germany. Demographics is one of the main reasons why the US will be much better off than Europe as we go forward.' -Michael A. Arouet
If I were 50 years old in Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands we are starting to see the same effect, I'd start wondering who will pay my state-funded pension.
You need either economic growth, acceptance of high migration, or healthy demographics. Italy has none of the three. What will give?
https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1781978599391674470
Please click on the link and have a look at the graph.
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Lyn Alden's April newsletter is out. Well, worth your time to read this:
https://www.lynalden.com/april-2024-newsletter/
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr
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'If you made $500.000 per day, every single day since the Great Pyramids were built, you would have less than half of what the US government has borrowed since June.'
Although this quote is a bit outdated it is actually nuts when you contemplate it...perspective is nice when it comes to large numbers.
Let me do the math for you: 4.700(years) * 365 (days/year) * 500.000$ (/day) = 857.750.000.000 - Less than a Trillion
(barring the likely inaccuracy of our understanding of the Pyramids timeline)
Which means you would still have less than 3% of what the US government has in total debt.
No matter your thoughts on Bitcoin, think about those numbers for a minute and let that sink in.
After that, you should probably buy some Bitcoin.
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
Before we start I want to share some deep knowledge:
"Bitcoin didn't appear out of thin air - it is the result of decades of work. Many digital currency projects failed before they succeeded. Understanding how we got here will help you understand where we're going. Learn the history behind Bitcoin here:" - Jameson Lopp
https://www.lopp.net/bitcoin-information/history.html
16th of April:
➡️Bitcoin Core 27.0 released:
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/release-notes/release-notes-27.0.md
TLDR: Bitcoin has now better privacy by default. An important and welcome change to Bitcoin core, by finally supporting encryption between nodes. This is a massive improvement.
For the technical readers of the Weekly Recap, I would recommend to following article and podcast
https://stephanlivera.com/episode/433/
https://bips.dev/324/
➡️Google has opened a new office in El Salvador to support the country’s digital transformation and modernization of government services. Furthering President Bukele’s goal of turning the country into a tech hub. Bukele managed to lower crime, a growing economy, and higher foreign investment + more tourism.
Eat that IMF
➡️BYBIT RESEARCH: "With only 2 million Bitcoin left, if we assume a daily inflow of $500 million to Bitcoin Spot ETFs, the equivalent of around 7,142 bitcoins will leave exchange reserves daily, suggesting that it will only take nine months to consume all of the remaining reserves." -Bitcoin News
➡️ "$400 Billion Banco Do Brasil holds BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF
It is the BIGGEST financial institution in Latin America!"- Bitcoin Archive
➡️"Mr. 100" is an unknown entity known for buying 100 Bitcoin every day since Nov 2, 2022. They now hold 60.600 BTC (!) worth $3.8 Billion ($1.6 Billion in profit)
Due to the size of the investment, many people speculate this is a nation-state buying Bitcoin. But who is it?" - Bram Kanstein
Great thread: https://twitter.com/bramk/status/1780243283060371717
I personally and I really do hope it is Brunei. They are mining Bitcoin and hopefully also buying Bitcoin.
But probably it is an exchange. Some people say this is an exchange wallet by Upbit Global.
17th of April:
➡️'Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs to start trading by 30th April and could bring in $25 billion: Matrixport and OSL reports.' -Radar
➡️Last week I wrote a bit on UFC lightweight Renato Moicano: "If you care about your country, read Ludwig Von Mises' 6 lessons of the Austrian Economic School motherf*ckers".
He was referring to, it’s a series of six lectures Mises gave in Argentina in 1958, later combined into a book: “Economic Policy: Thoughts for Today and Tomorrow”.
'Fifty years after his death, Mises gets more downloads in three days than what 95% of living economists get in their entire lifetime. Regurgitating fiat propaganda may give you fiat jobs & titles, but pursuing truth gives you immortality.'- Saeifedean Ammous
➡️Blackrock spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT closing the $2.3B gap on Grayscale's GBTC in assets, could be ahead by month's end, according to Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas
➡️ Now that the halving has passed us, and Bitcoin has become the hardest money in the world. Bitcoin’s most explosive gains are typically post-halving. Great chart from VanEck. (Picture 1)
18th of April:
Just the IMF putting time, effort, and money into reporting on Bitcoin.
They published a paper on Bitcoin cross-border flows, and here are three major takeaways:
'1.) The study provides evidence that increased Bitcoin activity occurs as investors move away from risk assets and supports the findings of other studies that Bitcoin can be used to hedge global uncertainty.'
2.) The study concludes that people appear to be turning to Bitcoin to flee instability in their local economies and currencies and to circumvent capital controls.
3.) The findings highlight that Bitcoin flows are typically larger in emerging and developing markets, like Argentina and Venezuela, compared to advanced economies with sophisticated financial markets.' - Sam Callahan
Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2024/04/05/A-Primer-on-Bitcoin-Cross-Border-Flows-Measurement-and-Drivers-547429#:~:text=Bitcoin%20cross%2Dborder%20flows%20respond,to%20avoid%20capital%20flow%20restrictions
To sum it up the IMF just said :
1. Bitcoin is increasingly used as a hedge against risk
2. Bitcoin is used as freedom money in autocratic regimes
3. Bitcoin’s biggest use case is the global south to protect against currency debasement and financial instability
Cope from the IMF? The IMF just realized that Bitcoin nullifies the need for their existence.
For sure it is a surprising study, but I am not surprised by the outcome.
➡️Riot has started mining Bitcoin at its new Corsicana Texas facility.
With a capacity of 1 GW, it is projected to be the biggest in the world.' - Pierre Rochard
➡️ Jamie Dimon says Bitcoin is a fraud and a Ponzi scheme.
- JP Morgan funds hold Bitcoin
- JPMorgan, His firm is an Authorized Participant (AP) for the BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF and gets paid for trading “fraud”.
➡️Binance dumps over 16,000 Bitcoin to back up their SAFU fund with ~$1 billion USDC
➡️'When Nobel Peace Prize nominee Félix Maradiaga tells you that Bitcoin is truly a tool for freedom after discussing the egregious human rights violations carried out by the Ortega regime, you listen.'
https://twitter.com/btcpolicyorg/status/1780983728858087893
Bitcoin serves as a tool to ensure human rights. Important for all world citizens, but especially for those living in Africa & South America.
19th - 20th of April:
Now I can explain to you what the halving is, but I rather let some Bitcoin OG's do that:
'The Bitcoin halving is not a day to celebrate because the price will immediately go up (it probably won't) but because it's a quadrennial reminder that we now have a means of saving free of debasement and resistant to censorship. For that I'm thankful.
Thank you, Satoshi' - Vijay Boyapati
'The Bitcoin halving is an anticipated event, one of those Bitcoin holidays that happen every once in a while. Along with Soft Fork Activation and various financial instrument introduction days, it's one of those not-quite-predictable days that occur every few years which give Bitcoiners reason to pay attention and mainstream media to speculate.'- Jimmy Song.
'Every node on the Bitcoin network divides the block height by a fixed issuance halving interval, 210,000 blocks. Rounding to the nearest whole number gives us how many halvings to apply to the 50 BTC initial per-block subsidy.
Halvings are applied by "right shifting" the binary representation of the subsidy, where the last bit is dropped and a zero is prepended in front. Each right shift applied causes a halving of issuance.' - Pierre Rochard (picture 2)
Andreas Antonopoulos explaining the halving:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwkRsp0gqX4&feature=youtu.be
The halving block, block 840.000, had 37.6 Bitcoin worth of fees... It wasn't just blocked 840,000 that had high fees, over the next 5 blocks, we had fees of 4.486, 6.99, 16.068, 24.008, and 29.821 BTC respectively. The fees are the highest it's ever been. This situation in Bitcoin is unprecedented.
If you want to know more on this topic (high fees - post halving) I highly recommend:
https://twitter.com/jimmysong/status/1781518918001078441
➡️'In the first 60 blocks since the 4th Bitcoin halving, miners have collected 860.2 BTC in transaction fees alone. Equivalent to over $54m, this has already smashed the previous single-day all-time high transaction fees of $24m.' - Jameson Lopp
21st of April:
'In the 130 blocks post-halving, Bitcoin miners earned 1,675 BTC ($109 million)
Of this, 75% (1,262 BTC worth $82 million) came from transaction fees.
For context, miners received 1,349 BTC in fees from April 1 to April 19.' - Bitcoin News
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
👉🏽 'US Treasury Bills now yield 4 TIMES more than the S&P 500's dividend, the most since the Dot-com bubble.
Over the last 100 years, a multiple this high has only been seen ONE time.
By comparison, even in the 2008 Financial Crisis, this metric peaked at ~3x.
With interest rate cuts being priced out, we likely see interest rates on bonds continue to push higher.
This will keep US T-Bill rates elevated and perhaps push this ratio to its 2000 highs.
Yet another Dot-com bubble similarity.'- TKL
🏦Banks:
👉🏽no news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
On the 16th of April:
👉🏽You are being told that we are in the greatest economy ever. Yet, every indicator shows we are in a terrible failing economy across the board, the US, Europe, etc. Stagflation is here and will only accelerate.
Although this is just a graph/ratio, AI will surely save us, right guys? (Picture 3)
We all know what followed, right? Populist leaders (please look around in your country) and a world war...
“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.”
- Ernest Hemingway
The US military is in a symbiotic relationship with the Dollar. If one part fails, it will drag the other down. Do understand that once Rome also spent more on 'defense' than others. Fiat currency is always about political faith. Always.
(Picture 4)
👉🏽"The IMF has cut Germany's economic growth in 2024 to 0.2%, after projecting a 0.5% rise in its January forecast. Europe's biggest economy is predicted to have the weakest growth of all G7 industrialized nations for the current year. For 2025, the IMF revised German growth to 1.3% from the previous 1.6%. IMF said this is due to persistently weak consumer sentiment. In the long term, the IMF's main concerns for Germany are structural problems such as the decline in the working population and obstacles to investment." - Holger Zschaepitz
I think the first time I spoke publicly on this matter was like three years ago. Germany is a slow-motion train wreck without cheap Russian natural gas. The green agenda isn't working, closing nuclear power plants isn't working...Europe's engine is on the ropes.
Oh well, this is an IMF so-called forecast.
👉🏽'The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage in the US rises to 7.43%, a new 2024 high.
We have not seen mortgage rates this high since early December 2023, when the Fed said rate cut talks were "premature."
This means that the monthly mortgage payment on a $500,000 house with 20% down is now $3,500/month.
The $3,500/month figure also does not include property taxes, insurance, or maintenance.
Meanwhile, the median US home is now selling for a whopping $417,700.'- TKL
I guess it is a great time to be a rental property owner. Yikes!
This thought-provoking thread has a very counterintuitive, contrarian take:
https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard/status/1780679971146731837
TLDR: 'This sums it up pretty well. Sound money helps slow the process, too. The fiat advent coupled with Keynesian asset inflation policies created a perfect storm. The rise of Chinese deflation exporting was the nail in the coffin because it made this reflexive.' -Nelson Alves
On the 17th of April:
👉🏽'The US is expected to collect $2.9 trillion in tax receipts during FY2024 as of Q1.
Government expenditures over that period are expected to be over $9.7 trillion.
The thousands of dollars you remitted to TurboTax today won't cover even 1/3rd of US expenditures.'- Joe Consorti
👉🏽UK Inflation at 3.2% — the lowest in more than 2 years from a peak of 11.1%
On the 18th of April:
👉🏽'Want to be in the top 1% in the United States?
You now need a net worth of a whopping $5.8 MILLION.
This is up 15% from the $5.0 million threshold seen just one year ago.
The top 1% threshold in the US is only lower than Monaco, Luxembourg, and Switzerland.
As equity markets and real estate prices have skyrocketed, the wealth gap is widening.
Since 2020, the wealth of the top 1% in the US has risen by almost $15 trillion to a record $44.6 trillion.
The rich are getting richer faster than ever before.' -TKL
👉🏽IMF Prepares Financial Revolution – Say Goodbye To The Dollar
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/imf-prepares-financial-revolution-say-goodbye-dollar
The only thing I can say on this is:
- I am not surprised
- Please reject CBDCs with everything you have. The centralization of digital currencies will never work!
- The IMF is not elected!
Anyway, no need to panic whatsoever. The IMF probably goes before the dollar. The dollar is and will be the number one (fiat) currency of the world.
On the 20th of April:
👉🏽'The Congressional Budget Office expects that about $20 trillion in net new federal debt will be issued over the next decade.
As part of this, they assume 1) no recessions but also that 2) that interest rates will go down starting here in 2024.
Otherwise, probably >$20 trillion.'
Now go back to the top of this article and read the start quote.
(Picture 5)
'Over the same next decade:
At current production rates and prices, about $2.5 trillion in new refined gold will be created. Prices and supply rates could change.
At current prices, about $70 billion in new bitcoin will be created. Prices could change, but not supply rates.' - Lyn Alden
On top of that:
👉🏽'The U.S. has $4.4 Trillion annual revenue, prints $1 Trillion every 100 days and there is still somehow a need to vote for $100 Billion aid to countries on top of everything else. House approves aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. House Rejects Border Security Bill.
The U.S. doesn’t have a revenue problem, it has a government spending problem.
'A child born in 2024 in the U.S. is born with ~$85,000 debt.
The median U.S. bank account balance is $8,000 and over half of the population has less than $500 in savings.
So, printing $ Trillions and sending $100s of Billions abroad is not without consequences.' - Gabor Gurbacs
Politicians celebrating sending another $60B to fund a foreign war. Perfect more DEBT!
Context:
$34.6 trillion in debt.
123% Debt to GDP
Nearly a $3 trillion deficit this year.
video: https://twitter.com/MDBitcoin/status/1781786149071032712
Separate money and state.
To sum everything up from above:
The US hasn’t generated a surplus consistently since the 1990s.
The trend over the past 50 years has been:
Larger and larger monthly deficits.
Monthly surpluses are getting few and far between.
That’s why the debt can only continue rising exponentially.
Deficit is destiny. That means increasing the rate of debasement of the US$.
21st of April:
'Who is supposed to pay for pensions and healthcare entitlements in Italy in a few years?
BTW, it’s a similar picture in Germany. Demographics is one of the main reasons why the US will be much better off than Europe as we go forward.' -Michael A. Arouet
If I were 50 years old in Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands we are starting to see the same effect, I'd start wondering who will pay my state-funded pension.
You need either economic growth, acceptance of high migration, or healthy demographics. Italy has none of the three. What will give?
https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1781978599391674470
Please click on the link and have a look at the graph.
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Lyn Alden's April newsletter is out. Well, worth your time to read this:
https://www.lynalden.com/april-2024-newsletter/
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
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