oatmeal on Nostr: #ICJ / What's expected on Friday? The International Court of Justice will announce a ...
#ICJ / What's expected on Friday?
The International Court of Justice will announce a decision on potential orders against Israel regarding its ongoing attack on Gaza, specifically in Rafah.
Israel fears the court will order a halt to the war, or at least the Rafah operation, due to worsening humanitarian conditions. Such an order would put Israel in a difficult position - defying it could lead to international sanctions, though the U.S. would likely support regardless of the legality of its actions in Gaza, as it did so far.
#Maariv is reporting that according to the assessment of "diplomatic officials," the likelihood that the court will accept South Africa's request and order a halt to the war in Gaza tomorrow, is not very high, but nonetheless, this time it is "realistic and certainly not negligible."
If this scenario materializes - Israel will be dependent on the U.S. vetoing the order. But according to assessments in Israel, in the current situation the American veto is not guaranteed, and it is possible that Washington will condition it on Israel taking one action or another. For example, in exchange for Israeli agreement to the Saudi initiative.
See also: [PDF] https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20240523-pre-01-00-en.pdf
israel group (npub1qj0…wryw)
palestine group (npub1zxn…0kqm)
#IsraelWarCrimes #Gaza #Rafah
The International Court of Justice will announce a decision on potential orders against Israel regarding its ongoing attack on Gaza, specifically in Rafah.
Israel fears the court will order a halt to the war, or at least the Rafah operation, due to worsening humanitarian conditions. Such an order would put Israel in a difficult position - defying it could lead to international sanctions, though the U.S. would likely support regardless of the legality of its actions in Gaza, as it did so far.
#Maariv is reporting that according to the assessment of "diplomatic officials," the likelihood that the court will accept South Africa's request and order a halt to the war in Gaza tomorrow, is not very high, but nonetheless, this time it is "realistic and certainly not negligible."
If this scenario materializes - Israel will be dependent on the U.S. vetoing the order. But according to assessments in Israel, in the current situation the American veto is not guaranteed, and it is possible that Washington will condition it on Israel taking one action or another. For example, in exchange for Israeli agreement to the Saudi initiative.
See also: [PDF] https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20240523-pre-01-00-en.pdf
israel group (npub1qj0…wryw)
palestine group (npub1zxn…0kqm)
#IsraelWarCrimes #Gaza #Rafah