btcfeen on Nostr: My weekly write up. #bitcoin #macro #grownostr Usa and global liquidity… usa ...
My weekly write up. #bitcoin #macro #grownostr
Usa and global liquidity… usa liquidity still sideways. Reverse repo (excess qe) is almost up. The TGA will likely be run down with the debt ceiling. There is about 800 billion in that so that should give some buffer for a while. But I think the fed will end qt soonish. Otherwise there will be liquidity issues and there will be problems in the treasury market. So far Bessent has continued janet yellen’s issuings of bills instead of bonds. Issuing on the short end of the curve has essentially added 7 trillion of liquidity given that bills are very “money like”. Tether buying the short end will continue to help buying in the short end, but they still have an issue with the long end. Govs and people alike know the us gov has a debt issue and no one wants to hold that long end paper. I think the fed will end up with it one way or another. One possible option would be to provide bonds with btc included. I think that would probably be a bit further off however. https://www.tradingview.com/x/m5sCm1Z6/ global liquidity is up likely due to the dxy heading down.
DXY… last possible bull support for the dxy. Below this and it looks like a deviation and the dxy will head back to 100. https://www.tradingview.com/x/SvxX0riP/
Us10y… still above support but momentum is to the downside now. Not surprisingly gold has broken out as this has topped. Tailwind for btc and gold if it continues down https://www.tradingview.com/x/xOzWLB4k/
Tlt… still below the yellow diagonal but pushing https://www.tradingview.com/x/5nm8Uz0D/
Spx… this looks ready to breakout soon. I never thought spx looked bad in recent weeks even though sentiment was in the dumps on twitter. It quickly reclaimed its 100 dma and the diagonal has provided support on pullbacks. https://www.tradingview.com/x/1FlkrdnL/
Gold.. secured a close above the 261 fib. That should be bull, but right now gold has had 8 consecutive weekly greens. The only other time this has happened in the last 20 years was in 2020 and was the top. Something to be aware of. Basically I am monitoring the 261 level for support. If that is lost the weekly might print a weekly bear div. https://www.tradingview.com/x/tIh24aj0/ looking at the weekly we are in the 5th acceleration of a parabola. We are getting closer and closer to a blowoff. As we saw with btc in 2017 once that 6th acceleration broke we topped. The last leg of the parabola is normally the where the largest price gains are made. So I see 2 scenarios here. blowoff to 3300 or higher in the next few months, or the weekly bear div plays out and it consolidates further. If the former plays out btc will likely have to wait a bit longer to start its big pump, as gold and btc compete for flows a bit. Eventually a lot of that will flow into btc imo. Btc is simple better in almost every way except the lindy effect. The interest in auditing the gold at ft knox is interesting. Imo this will only bring more attention to btc. Anyone can audit btc on the blockchain and it updates every 10 mins. Gold has way less transparency .
BTC… the weekly is playing out how I thought it might the last few weeks. Kind of slow drifting around and letting the 20 wma catch up and resetting the weekly stochrsi. Well now the stochrsi is reset. That means we can now pump at any time. Going sideways while that resets is always a good sign. If you look at consolidations above the 20wma with sideways pa there has only been one time that I see that broke down. That was in 2019. So for now I am still assuming this breaks up. https://www.tradingview.com/x/LoYSXD2P/
It is extremely rare btc sees more than 4 red weeks in a row. In fact it has only happened twice. We currently are in the 4th week. So if this week does close red it all but guarantees we see a green week next week. Any test of the 20 wma would be a buy. And I think that this would likely be the last red week if we do get it. https://www.tradingview.com/x/OG9yIAPP/
This consolidation still looks very similar to last jan. after the large summer consolidation, there was a fast move up followed by a smaller consolidation. To me it is on the bears to show that they can have the strength to break this patten down. Don’t fight the trend. https://www.tradingview.com/x/vN6d9dil/
We have seen a lot of long term holders sell in this range up here and the summer. Fri we found out who was buying. A lot of hedge funds and some soveigns and pensions. Hedge funds could be future sellers but the pensions and soveigns will be sticky buyers. I think it says something we haven’t had much more than a 30% pullback. The patient buyers are here and they are more sophisticated. Does that mean we continue this slow grind up? I am not sure. I still think that humans will human and greed might return to this market at some point. Imo we have seen 1/100th of the adoption that will take place over time. With that many people yet to adopt we will just have an orderly march upwards? I have my doubts. I think to get a bubble we need retail to return. That could be in the form of boomers perhaps. Most boomers don’t have exposure and by the end of this year I could see most having 2% exposure. This isn’t priced in. for 2% of the worlds assets to be in btc that would basically take it to 1 mil. Imo this happens at the latest within 5 years from now.
Btc is now below its 100 dma. Not the end of the world, but can’t really be bull until it reclaims that and its 50 dma. That would mean getting back over 100k. the 20 wma is 91k. I could possibly see a tap of that but don’t see it breaking. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q377nd0g/ or maybe we dick around until that catches up with price. https://www.tradingview.com/x/pUkhRJup/
Btc is 45 days into this 3d squeeze. There is a 65% chance this range would have broken by now. 2 weeks from now that goes up to 75%. 4 weeks from now that goes up to 90%. https://www.tradingview.com/x/V5hTY9Qc/ volatility is basically near atl’s. equinox is about 5 weeks away. Its possible btc waits for that pivot time table to break up.
One thing I noticed is that btc tends to do very well when usa is running a hot economy. I characterize this as when inflation is rising and new ISM manufacturing orders are trending up. Last times this happened is when btc had major bull runs. I think we are in one of these times now. Inflation looks to have bottomed and same with ISM new orders. Last 2 times btc topped within a month or so of ism new orders rolling over. Something to be aware of https://www.tradingview.com/x/HmWQFkdn/
Ethusd… eth is still holding this massive tri. Chop until it resolves. https://www.tradingview.com/x/5AiJAUDc/
Ethbtc needs to reclaim the red horizontal to show any strength at all. Still holding the green diagonal for now https://www.tradingview.com/x/OAMIxvLh/
Overall thoughts. We have reached peak boring. When volality is this low it generally means there isn’t too much buying or selling going on. Sat stackers and those who are wanting to get a stake in btc (such as sovereign) will continue buying every day. Eventually this should lead to the range breaking up and more fomo buys. Imo we could see a move all the way down to 91k and still be bull. Breaking 100k again should signal the next leg is getting ready to begin. I would expect movement by mid march at the latest
Usa and global liquidity… usa liquidity still sideways. Reverse repo (excess qe) is almost up. The TGA will likely be run down with the debt ceiling. There is about 800 billion in that so that should give some buffer for a while. But I think the fed will end qt soonish. Otherwise there will be liquidity issues and there will be problems in the treasury market. So far Bessent has continued janet yellen’s issuings of bills instead of bonds. Issuing on the short end of the curve has essentially added 7 trillion of liquidity given that bills are very “money like”. Tether buying the short end will continue to help buying in the short end, but they still have an issue with the long end. Govs and people alike know the us gov has a debt issue and no one wants to hold that long end paper. I think the fed will end up with it one way or another. One possible option would be to provide bonds with btc included. I think that would probably be a bit further off however. https://www.tradingview.com/x/m5sCm1Z6/ global liquidity is up likely due to the dxy heading down.
DXY… last possible bull support for the dxy. Below this and it looks like a deviation and the dxy will head back to 100. https://www.tradingview.com/x/SvxX0riP/
Us10y… still above support but momentum is to the downside now. Not surprisingly gold has broken out as this has topped. Tailwind for btc and gold if it continues down https://www.tradingview.com/x/xOzWLB4k/
Tlt… still below the yellow diagonal but pushing https://www.tradingview.com/x/5nm8Uz0D/
Spx… this looks ready to breakout soon. I never thought spx looked bad in recent weeks even though sentiment was in the dumps on twitter. It quickly reclaimed its 100 dma and the diagonal has provided support on pullbacks. https://www.tradingview.com/x/1FlkrdnL/
Gold.. secured a close above the 261 fib. That should be bull, but right now gold has had 8 consecutive weekly greens. The only other time this has happened in the last 20 years was in 2020 and was the top. Something to be aware of. Basically I am monitoring the 261 level for support. If that is lost the weekly might print a weekly bear div. https://www.tradingview.com/x/tIh24aj0/ looking at the weekly we are in the 5th acceleration of a parabola. We are getting closer and closer to a blowoff. As we saw with btc in 2017 once that 6th acceleration broke we topped. The last leg of the parabola is normally the where the largest price gains are made. So I see 2 scenarios here. blowoff to 3300 or higher in the next few months, or the weekly bear div plays out and it consolidates further. If the former plays out btc will likely have to wait a bit longer to start its big pump, as gold and btc compete for flows a bit. Eventually a lot of that will flow into btc imo. Btc is simple better in almost every way except the lindy effect. The interest in auditing the gold at ft knox is interesting. Imo this will only bring more attention to btc. Anyone can audit btc on the blockchain and it updates every 10 mins. Gold has way less transparency .
BTC… the weekly is playing out how I thought it might the last few weeks. Kind of slow drifting around and letting the 20 wma catch up and resetting the weekly stochrsi. Well now the stochrsi is reset. That means we can now pump at any time. Going sideways while that resets is always a good sign. If you look at consolidations above the 20wma with sideways pa there has only been one time that I see that broke down. That was in 2019. So for now I am still assuming this breaks up. https://www.tradingview.com/x/LoYSXD2P/
It is extremely rare btc sees more than 4 red weeks in a row. In fact it has only happened twice. We currently are in the 4th week. So if this week does close red it all but guarantees we see a green week next week. Any test of the 20 wma would be a buy. And I think that this would likely be the last red week if we do get it. https://www.tradingview.com/x/OG9yIAPP/
This consolidation still looks very similar to last jan. after the large summer consolidation, there was a fast move up followed by a smaller consolidation. To me it is on the bears to show that they can have the strength to break this patten down. Don’t fight the trend. https://www.tradingview.com/x/vN6d9dil/
We have seen a lot of long term holders sell in this range up here and the summer. Fri we found out who was buying. A lot of hedge funds and some soveigns and pensions. Hedge funds could be future sellers but the pensions and soveigns will be sticky buyers. I think it says something we haven’t had much more than a 30% pullback. The patient buyers are here and they are more sophisticated. Does that mean we continue this slow grind up? I am not sure. I still think that humans will human and greed might return to this market at some point. Imo we have seen 1/100th of the adoption that will take place over time. With that many people yet to adopt we will just have an orderly march upwards? I have my doubts. I think to get a bubble we need retail to return. That could be in the form of boomers perhaps. Most boomers don’t have exposure and by the end of this year I could see most having 2% exposure. This isn’t priced in. for 2% of the worlds assets to be in btc that would basically take it to 1 mil. Imo this happens at the latest within 5 years from now.
Btc is now below its 100 dma. Not the end of the world, but can’t really be bull until it reclaims that and its 50 dma. That would mean getting back over 100k. the 20 wma is 91k. I could possibly see a tap of that but don’t see it breaking. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q377nd0g/ or maybe we dick around until that catches up with price. https://www.tradingview.com/x/pUkhRJup/
Btc is 45 days into this 3d squeeze. There is a 65% chance this range would have broken by now. 2 weeks from now that goes up to 75%. 4 weeks from now that goes up to 90%. https://www.tradingview.com/x/V5hTY9Qc/ volatility is basically near atl’s. equinox is about 5 weeks away. Its possible btc waits for that pivot time table to break up.
One thing I noticed is that btc tends to do very well when usa is running a hot economy. I characterize this as when inflation is rising and new ISM manufacturing orders are trending up. Last times this happened is when btc had major bull runs. I think we are in one of these times now. Inflation looks to have bottomed and same with ISM new orders. Last 2 times btc topped within a month or so of ism new orders rolling over. Something to be aware of https://www.tradingview.com/x/HmWQFkdn/
Ethusd… eth is still holding this massive tri. Chop until it resolves. https://www.tradingview.com/x/5AiJAUDc/
Ethbtc needs to reclaim the red horizontal to show any strength at all. Still holding the green diagonal for now https://www.tradingview.com/x/OAMIxvLh/
Overall thoughts. We have reached peak boring. When volality is this low it generally means there isn’t too much buying or selling going on. Sat stackers and those who are wanting to get a stake in btc (such as sovereign) will continue buying every day. Eventually this should lead to the range breaking up and more fomo buys. Imo we could see a move all the way down to 91k and still be bull. Breaking 100k again should signal the next leg is getting ready to begin. I would expect movement by mid march at the latest