morpheus on Nostr: Remember that I said you can't look at the % of these betting markets now I'm not ...
Remember that I said you can't look at the % of these betting markets now I'm not 100% because these markets are new so they can be gamed but the % is collapsing because the betting markets have very thin order books and at a billion $ in volume is a very small market so a small amount of capital could swing these % a lot. The reason to swim the % I think is less so to influence the election but more because people are placing other bets around the assumption that Trump had a 65% chance which is not accurate.
Published at
2024-11-03 14:16:35Event JSON
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"content": "Remember that I said you can't look at the % of these betting markets now I'm not 100% because these markets are new so they can be gamed but the % is collapsing because the betting markets have very thin order books and at a billion $ in volume is a very small market so a small amount of capital could swing these % a lot. The reason to swim the % I think is less so to influence the election but more because people are placing other bets around the assumption that Trump had a 65% chance which is not accurate.",
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