rivers on Nostr: 1️⃣ The price of BTC has never decreased from one election day to the following ...
1️⃣ The price of BTC has never decreased from one election day to the following election day four years later
2️⃣ Further to point 1, the price of BTC has never returned to or fallen below the price floor set on election day at any time between election cycles
3️⃣ There has been substantial price appreciation decay between election day and BTC cycle peaks, ranging from +10,473% to 'only' +363% for the previous cycle
4️⃣ For each of the election cycles shown, the average time taken from election day to cycle peak is 388 days, so just over a year
5️⃣ It appears unlikely that the next four years will buck the trend, given BTC experienced a macro bear market for the first time under Biden (COVID/Ukraine)
6️⃣ Using *only* the exponential decay of price appreciation and average number of days from election day to cycle peak as a predictive model, we arrive at a price of $168,754 for the next cycle top which will be reached around the 28th of November 2025. This is a 145.3% increase from the price at the time of writing (not investment advice, DYOR).
2️⃣ Further to point 1, the price of BTC has never returned to or fallen below the price floor set on election day at any time between election cycles
3️⃣ There has been substantial price appreciation decay between election day and BTC cycle peaks, ranging from +10,473% to 'only' +363% for the previous cycle
4️⃣ For each of the election cycles shown, the average time taken from election day to cycle peak is 388 days, so just over a year
5️⃣ It appears unlikely that the next four years will buck the trend, given BTC experienced a macro bear market for the first time under Biden (COVID/Ukraine)
6️⃣ Using *only* the exponential decay of price appreciation and average number of days from election day to cycle peak as a predictive model, we arrive at a price of $168,754 for the next cycle top which will be reached around the 28th of November 2025. This is a 145.3% increase from the price at the time of writing (not investment advice, DYOR).