l'empathie mécanique on Nostr: npub1rl7yx…pxawh Yes, but the confidence is important too :blobnerd: One should be ...
npub1rl7yxag7jrz994glqvpqsldnygxqf8h40gxmqghejnejs569mkcqlpxawh (npub1rl7…xawh) Yes, but the confidence is important too 
One should be right exactly 75% of the time when placing 75% confidence. No more (underconfident), no less (overconfident).
There’s a practical difference when betting acting on 80% predictions (fairly sure) vs 55% predictions (barely has any clues) vs 99% predictions (verified insider info?).
I’d even argue predictions without confidence are worse than nothing (i.e. misleading) as they silently substitute readers’ subjective verisimilitude for authors’ information.
One should be right exactly 75% of the time when placing 75% confidence. No more (underconfident), no less (overconfident).
There’s a practical difference when betting acting on 80% predictions (fairly sure) vs 55% predictions (barely has any clues) vs 99% predictions (verified insider info?).
I’d even argue predictions without confidence are worse than nothing (i.e. misleading) as they silently substitute readers’ subjective verisimilitude for authors’ information.