BTCMeansFreedom4All on Nostr: Originally I just sat down in early November and sought a date that's more than 4 ...
Originally I just sat down in early November and sought a date that's more than 4 years ago that would not be over bought or over sold. 18 months after the halving Bitcoin is typically overbought, and exactly 12 months after the bull peak is typically over sold.
Since the halvings occurred in May 2020 and April 2024 I was trying to insolate this calculation from bottom and peak of each bull/bear period. I chose 6 years prior since it's a month prior to the ~$3500~ bottom of Dec 2018, and according to:
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost
the price was very close to the mining cost at both points (November 2018/2024) and thus neither oversold or overbought.
My calculation for CAGR were based entirely on the hashrate rate of growth over that period of time divided by efficiency increases, tied to doubling of value of Bitcoin with each halving. When I plugged all the numbers in, also accounting for currency debasement, I found an approximate 95% correlation between expected price growth from the above calculations and what was actually observed.
Since the halvings occurred in May 2020 and April 2024 I was trying to insolate this calculation from bottom and peak of each bull/bear period. I chose 6 years prior since it's a month prior to the ~$3500~ bottom of Dec 2018, and according to:
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost
the price was very close to the mining cost at both points (November 2018/2024) and thus neither oversold or overbought.
My calculation for CAGR were based entirely on the hashrate rate of growth over that period of time divided by efficiency increases, tied to doubling of value of Bitcoin with each halving. When I plugged all the numbers in, also accounting for currency debasement, I found an approximate 95% correlation between expected price growth from the above calculations and what was actually observed.