halalmoney on Nostr: "Eugene Fama, pioneer of the efficient market hypothesis and Nobel laureate in ...
"Eugene Fama, pioneer of the efficient market hypothesis and Nobel laureate in economics, predicts that Bitcoin has a close to 100% probability of becoming worthless within the next decade…
…When asked directly by Zingales about the probability that Bitcoin’s value would go to zero within 10 years, Fama responded “I would say it’s close to one.” However, he acknowledged uncertainty about the timing, noting that “the distribution has long tails,” meaning there’s significant uncertainty about exactly how and when any potential collapse might occur.
…“I’m hoping it will bust,” Fama said, “because if it doesn’t, you have to start all over with monetary theory.” He suggested that if Bitcoin maintains its value long-term, economists would need to fundamentally rethink their understanding of money and markets.
…While Fama’s prediction is stark, he acknowledges the uncertainty inherent in such forecasts. His analysis suggests that the next decade will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin represents a genuine innovation in monetary systems or, as he suspects, an unsustainable deviation from fundamental economic principles."
https://www.promarket.org/2025/01/30/nobel-laureate-eugene-fama-predicts-bitcoin-will-become-worthless/
…When asked directly by Zingales about the probability that Bitcoin’s value would go to zero within 10 years, Fama responded “I would say it’s close to one.” However, he acknowledged uncertainty about the timing, noting that “the distribution has long tails,” meaning there’s significant uncertainty about exactly how and when any potential collapse might occur.
…“I’m hoping it will bust,” Fama said, “because if it doesn’t, you have to start all over with monetary theory.” He suggested that if Bitcoin maintains its value long-term, economists would need to fundamentally rethink their understanding of money and markets.
…While Fama’s prediction is stark, he acknowledges the uncertainty inherent in such forecasts. His analysis suggests that the next decade will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin represents a genuine innovation in monetary systems or, as he suspects, an unsustainable deviation from fundamental economic principles."
https://www.promarket.org/2025/01/30/nobel-laureate-eugene-fama-predicts-bitcoin-will-become-worthless/