otherbarry on Nostr: Based on the chart, it appears you’re referencing Bitcoin’s relative price ...
Based on the chart, it appears you’re referencing Bitcoin’s relative price performance compared to past cycles since their respective cycle lows, with comparisons to the 2015–2018 (blue) and 2018–2022 (green) cycles. The current cycle (black) seems to be performing closer to the 2015–2018 cycle (blue line).
Observations from the Chart:
1. Current Cycle (2022+) Trend:
• As of January 25, 2025, the current cycle is tracking slightly below the 2015–2018 cycle (blue line) in terms of performance from its cycle low.
• The 2015–2018 cycle peaked significantly higher (~120x from the bottom).
2. 2015–2018 Multiplier:
• The 2015 low was ~$200, and the 2017 ATH was ~$19,500 (~97.5x).
• If the current cycle replicates this pattern, starting from a bottom of ~$15,500 in late 2022, this would suggest a potential peak of:
$15,500 × 97.5 = ~$1,511,250.
3. Current Cycle vs. 2018–2022:
• The current cycle is outpacing the 2018–2022 cycle (green line) in growth, which had a much weaker peak multiplier (~20x).
• This divergence suggests that the current cycle is more robust, potentially due to post-FTX clarity, macroeconomic factors, and renewed institutional interest.
4. Impact of Halving and Trump Administration Policies:
• The halving’s impact generally becomes most pronounced 6–12 months after the event (mid-to-late 2025).
• Pro-crypto policies under the Trump administration, including a national digital asset strategy, could catalyze adoption, attracting both retail and institutional investors, further amplifying this cycle’s multiplier.
Refined Prediction Using Chart Insights:
If the current cycle mirrors the 2015–2018 performance (~97.5x from the bottom), adjusted for slightly lower performance (85x–100x due to diminishing returns), the projected all-time high would range between:
• Base Case: $15,500 × 85 = ~$1,317,500.
• Bull Case: $15,500 × 100 = ~$1,550,000.
If we add a potential 10–20% premium due to enhanced regulatory clarity and macroeconomic trends, the ATH could reach $1,650,000–$1,860,000.
Final Range:
Given the chart analysis and current dynamics, the predicted all-time high for this cycle is likely to fall between $1,300,000 and $1,850,000.
The most likely date range for the all-time high in this cycle is September to November 2025, with a narrower likelihood centering around October 2025.
Observations from the Chart:
1. Current Cycle (2022+) Trend:
• As of January 25, 2025, the current cycle is tracking slightly below the 2015–2018 cycle (blue line) in terms of performance from its cycle low.
• The 2015–2018 cycle peaked significantly higher (~120x from the bottom).
2. 2015–2018 Multiplier:
• The 2015 low was ~$200, and the 2017 ATH was ~$19,500 (~97.5x).
• If the current cycle replicates this pattern, starting from a bottom of ~$15,500 in late 2022, this would suggest a potential peak of:
$15,500 × 97.5 = ~$1,511,250.
3. Current Cycle vs. 2018–2022:
• The current cycle is outpacing the 2018–2022 cycle (green line) in growth, which had a much weaker peak multiplier (~20x).
• This divergence suggests that the current cycle is more robust, potentially due to post-FTX clarity, macroeconomic factors, and renewed institutional interest.
4. Impact of Halving and Trump Administration Policies:
• The halving’s impact generally becomes most pronounced 6–12 months after the event (mid-to-late 2025).
• Pro-crypto policies under the Trump administration, including a national digital asset strategy, could catalyze adoption, attracting both retail and institutional investors, further amplifying this cycle’s multiplier.
Refined Prediction Using Chart Insights:
If the current cycle mirrors the 2015–2018 performance (~97.5x from the bottom), adjusted for slightly lower performance (85x–100x due to diminishing returns), the projected all-time high would range between:
• Base Case: $15,500 × 85 = ~$1,317,500.
• Bull Case: $15,500 × 100 = ~$1,550,000.
If we add a potential 10–20% premium due to enhanced regulatory clarity and macroeconomic trends, the ATH could reach $1,650,000–$1,860,000.
Final Range:
Given the chart analysis and current dynamics, the predicted all-time high for this cycle is likely to fall between $1,300,000 and $1,850,000.
The most likely date range for the all-time high in this cycle is September to November 2025, with a narrower likelihood centering around October 2025.