Bitman on Nostr: **USA 🇺🇸: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS** *Analysis based on early voting data and ...
**USA 🇺🇸: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS**
*Analysis based on early voting data and campaign strategies:*
1) **IMPORTANT:** We cannot compare early voting in 2024 to 2020. That year, due to the pandemic, early and mail-in voting reached record numbers. With that said...
As of this Monday (28), early voting data is more favorable for D. Trump than for K. Harris in nearly all key swing states.
Traditionally Republican areas are seeing more active turnout than Democratic-leaning areas. The big question is:
Are Republicans "cannibalizing" votes from Election Day voters who, due to a request from Trump’s campaign, are voting early this year?
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is starting to pin its hopes on Democratic voters, who traditionally vote early, opting to vote on Election Day this time around.
In the coming days, we can expect both campaigns to encourage Election Day voters to cast their ballots as early as possible. In some voting locations, wait times could reach 4 to 5 hours!
**Summary:** Trump’s campaign has more reason to feel optimistic about early voting data than Harris's campaign.
But what can we “decipher” about the campaign strategies?
In the coming days, the Democratic campaign is likely to focus on a “rejection vote” against Trump, trying to frame the election as a referendum on him.
Another focus will be to hold events in Democratic strongholds to boost turnout among voters who lean towards K. Harris but haven’t shown strong enthusiasm.
Trump’s campaign, on the other hand, has decided to “expand” the map by holding rallies in areas and states considered safe for K. Harris. But what does this mean?
Either the campaign is poorly informed, with internal polls showing inaccurate data, or it is so optimistic that it sees a chance of winning not only the Electoral College (which decides the election) but also the popular vote, to leave no doubt about the voters' choice.
**Conclusion:**
I see slightly exaggerated optimism regarding a Trump victory. He may be in a good position but is far from having the election in the bag. The Democratic Party still has time to mobilize its base and tighten the race; however, this mobilization needs to begin as soon as possible.
*Analysis based on early voting data and campaign strategies:*
1) **IMPORTANT:** We cannot compare early voting in 2024 to 2020. That year, due to the pandemic, early and mail-in voting reached record numbers. With that said...
As of this Monday (28), early voting data is more favorable for D. Trump than for K. Harris in nearly all key swing states.
Traditionally Republican areas are seeing more active turnout than Democratic-leaning areas. The big question is:
Are Republicans "cannibalizing" votes from Election Day voters who, due to a request from Trump’s campaign, are voting early this year?
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is starting to pin its hopes on Democratic voters, who traditionally vote early, opting to vote on Election Day this time around.
In the coming days, we can expect both campaigns to encourage Election Day voters to cast their ballots as early as possible. In some voting locations, wait times could reach 4 to 5 hours!
**Summary:** Trump’s campaign has more reason to feel optimistic about early voting data than Harris's campaign.
But what can we “decipher” about the campaign strategies?
In the coming days, the Democratic campaign is likely to focus on a “rejection vote” against Trump, trying to frame the election as a referendum on him.
Another focus will be to hold events in Democratic strongholds to boost turnout among voters who lean towards K. Harris but haven’t shown strong enthusiasm.
Trump’s campaign, on the other hand, has decided to “expand” the map by holding rallies in areas and states considered safe for K. Harris. But what does this mean?
Either the campaign is poorly informed, with internal polls showing inaccurate data, or it is so optimistic that it sees a chance of winning not only the Electoral College (which decides the election) but also the popular vote, to leave no doubt about the voters' choice.
**Conclusion:**
I see slightly exaggerated optimism regarding a Trump victory. He may be in a good position but is far from having the election in the bag. The Democratic Party still has time to mobilize its base and tighten the race; however, this mobilization needs to begin as soon as possible.