brockm on Nostr: People underestimate the importance of threshold effects in complex systems like the ...
People underestimate the importance of threshold effects in complex systems like the economy, culture and society at large. Most confident predictions about the future hold way too many variables constant over time, which leads to faulty predictions with high confidence.
Published at
2023-04-11 08:12:22Event JSON
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"content": "People underestimate the importance of threshold effects in complex systems like the economy, culture and society at large. Most confident predictions about the future hold way too many variables constant over time, which leads to faulty predictions with high confidence.",
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