matthewbennett on Nostr: Are we still doing ⚡ journalism? Will post a couple of columns. Could the right win ...
Are we still doing ⚡ journalism? Will post a couple of columns.
Could the right win a historic victory in July? Some polls start to suggest support for Vox might fall...in favour of the PP?
The image below is the graph of shifts in Spanish politics since the transition to democracy in the 1970s following the death of Franco, in percentage of the vote for each party. Right-wing parties are at the bottom, centre parties are in the middle, then left-wing parties and the regional nationalists at the top. The numbers for all previous years are real, from general elections. The numbers for 2023 are from the latest GAD3 poll in ABC. GAD3 has a good reputation as a pollster in Spain. The white dotted line is 40%, which is when the right moves into overall majority territory: Aznar in the year 2000 and Rajoy in 2011. The latest poll gives the Popular Party (36.6%) and Vox (12.4%) the highest combined share of the vote for the right for the last 46 years: almost 50%.
After five years of a socialist-communist coalition government and the global Covid pandemic, if those poll numbers end up being correct, that would be a historic shift of the electorate towards a new victory for the right in Spain, this time with conservatives in coalition with the far-right. 12.4% for Vox is also about three points lower than where Abascal’s party has been polling consistently for almost a year now. Which is to say, GAD3 is forecasting a drop in support for the far-right in the weeks running up to the general election, and a drop that would break that long-running flat trend line at 15%. GAD3 is not the only one: Sigma Dos also has Abascal on 12%. How many Vox voters are looking at the state of play, faced with a sudden chance of getting rid of Sánchez and the left, and deciding to switch back to Feijóo’s PP to give him more seats? Is Feijóo now the winning horse in this election race?
Could the right win a historic victory in July? Some polls start to suggest support for Vox might fall...in favour of the PP?
The image below is the graph of shifts in Spanish politics since the transition to democracy in the 1970s following the death of Franco, in percentage of the vote for each party. Right-wing parties are at the bottom, centre parties are in the middle, then left-wing parties and the regional nationalists at the top. The numbers for all previous years are real, from general elections. The numbers for 2023 are from the latest GAD3 poll in ABC. GAD3 has a good reputation as a pollster in Spain. The white dotted line is 40%, which is when the right moves into overall majority territory: Aznar in the year 2000 and Rajoy in 2011. The latest poll gives the Popular Party (36.6%) and Vox (12.4%) the highest combined share of the vote for the right for the last 46 years: almost 50%.
After five years of a socialist-communist coalition government and the global Covid pandemic, if those poll numbers end up being correct, that would be a historic shift of the electorate towards a new victory for the right in Spain, this time with conservatives in coalition with the far-right. 12.4% for Vox is also about three points lower than where Abascal’s party has been polling consistently for almost a year now. Which is to say, GAD3 is forecasting a drop in support for the far-right in the weeks running up to the general election, and a drop that would break that long-running flat trend line at 15%. GAD3 is not the only one: Sigma Dos also has Abascal on 12%. How many Vox voters are looking at the state of play, faced with a sudden chance of getting rid of Sánchez and the left, and deciding to switch back to Feijóo’s PP to give him more seats? Is Feijóo now the winning horse in this election race?