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suboss
npub1ulv…7kr9
2024-11-07 10:32:39

suboss on Nostr: 100k big psychology price point. Yes expect to see a sell off for sure. 💯 For the ...

100k big psychology price point. Yes expect to see a sell off for sure. 💯
For the last 3 months I been tracking Bitcoin Open Interest very closely. The leverage in the system is way too high. When the leverage is high, then whales come along and either sell or buy to liquidate the longs or shorts. And then they can get back into / out of the market with at lower or higher price to make a profit.
So currently we have over 24 billion leverage, more longs than shorts, which historically is too much leverage. Previous cycles once we hit ATH (especially after election) it sky rockets. I'm not so sure this will happen yet, I think it will grind higher at much slower rate. Unless leverage is flushed out. The only way to flush out leverage is to have a big drop (get rid of longs). This will get rid of weak hands and then we have perfect formula for it to sky rocket.
Thats my take on it. I don't trade, but I like to try understand why we sometimes get these sudden pumps or dumps.

Once leverage drops, then price I think will rip. I've been seeing how bitcoin on exchanges is lowest its ever been and demand is just growing and growing. Im Very very bullish. Just this unhealthy leverage is making me short term cautious.

I use https://coinalyze.net/bitcoin/open-interest/

to see leverage.
Author Public Key
npub1ulvfx7werjfhfxryajpuvdd2j8thmz9wylw4uj727wfcsrtwevrsdd7kr9