Jose Sammut on Nostr: GDP Release ✅ 1.6% vs 2.5% exp and 3.4% last (Stagflationary!!) ✅ Inventories ...

GDP Release
✅ 1.6% vs 2.5% exp and 3.4% last (Stagflationary!!)
✅ Inventories declined substantially. Add back inventories & trade, you get 2.81%. BUT, why are inventories down?

quoting nevent1q…58m3

In the most recent beige book, manufacturers complained about their clients having large inventories, vendors complained about lower than expected demand or said they reduced inventories.
I think this low gdp cannot be discarded because inventories were low. I also expect this trend to continue.
A falling stock market might be a self fulfilling prophecy for a recession, given how little confidence people have in the economy.
Either way, the market is very overpriced, with little upside and many risk factors.


https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240417.pdf