SpyMasterTrades on Nostr: Economists are totally stumped about why #consumer sentiment remains so low despite a ...
Economists are totally stumped about why #consumer sentiment remains so low despite a 'robust #economy', but the answer may be simple.
Here's a chart of consumer sentiment with the #dilution of the #monetary base as an overlay (in red).
Consumers are feeling the pain of having their purchasing power diluted, and thus their sentiment is low. In other words, sentiment has been correlating with (real) purchasing power.
The #Fed has been using the #CPI to paint a much better picture of inflation than is actually occurring. The problem for the Fed is that even though it can try to downplay the real rate of #inflation, consumers are sensing that inflation is much worse than is being reported and this is being reflected in sentiment data.
With that said, if you think things are bad now, currency inflation is poised to get far worse in the years ahead as the ratio of interest on public debt to #GDP spirals higher...
Note: To illustrate the dilution of purchasing power I used the formula: 1/(WALCL-RRPONTTLD-WTREGEN). This formula represents the value of one U.S. dollar relative to the total monetary base. The expression #WALCL-#RRPONTTLD-#WTREGEN reflects the assets on the Fed's balance sheet that determine the monetary base.
Here's a chart of consumer sentiment with the #dilution of the #monetary base as an overlay (in red).
Consumers are feeling the pain of having their purchasing power diluted, and thus their sentiment is low. In other words, sentiment has been correlating with (real) purchasing power.
The #Fed has been using the #CPI to paint a much better picture of inflation than is actually occurring. The problem for the Fed is that even though it can try to downplay the real rate of #inflation, consumers are sensing that inflation is much worse than is being reported and this is being reflected in sentiment data.
With that said, if you think things are bad now, currency inflation is poised to get far worse in the years ahead as the ratio of interest on public debt to #GDP spirals higher...
Note: To illustrate the dilution of purchasing power I used the formula: 1/(WALCL-RRPONTTLD-WTREGEN). This formula represents the value of one U.S. dollar relative to the total monetary base. The expression #WALCL-#RRPONTTLD-#WTREGEN reflects the assets on the Fed's balance sheet that determine the monetary base.