exist270 on Nostr: All of us need to be thinking more about all of the 2nd & 3rd order effects of ...
All of us need to be thinking more about all of the 2nd & 3rd order effects of multiple modern innovations in concert. 💭
#BTC will consume all speculative value as it becomes exponentially less risky to simply store value. We have pretty much accepted that at this point; old news. 🤝
But simultaneously, #AI will be adding massive efficiency gains to every single sector of human activity. That leads to costs of production dropping & means of production decentralizing; there will be very few competitive advantages & every sector begins to homogenize in terms of capability. 🟰
Add the trend of #OpenSource to that & you have a future where some things have a zero production premium; you get the open-source plans & you now have a situation where the only costs are material & time (which are both also falling due to innovation). 🆓
These factors mean that the global repricing is going to be multiples above where most think it will be; EVERYTHING you can make at scale will go down in both cost & value (even if it's still going up in nominal terms due to inflation adjustment), but there will probably come a point where things fall in nominal terms too because far less objects will even be deemed to possess value (which is what we just witnessed when the markets aggressively repriced the AI-adjacent businesses); all it takes is one open-source drop to nuke entire sectors. 🙃
The macro pattern for every sector will be:
1. Number go up - speculative bubble blowoff top. 🥳
2. Number go flat - inflation begins to outpace value accretion. 🧐
3. Number go down - we play a li'l "who's gonna hold the bag". 🫠
In terms of housing, it'll look like the institutional sector of real estate competing to liquidate properties & become #Bitcoin treasury companies when they realize that ((cash flow + asset increase - maintenance - tax) < #HODL); they are only businesses after all & they don't give a shit about the actual properties, they simply care about the value accretion. That will actually dampen the value accretion proposition after a certain point because gains will start to top out & then retail will also begin to dump any secondary or non-essential properties; the cost of holding is more than the cost of selling. The supply will increase as all of this demand is waning & the market will eventually find equilibrium slightly above utility value because the production sector will simultaneously be engaged in a race to the bottom for production cost. Lots of pre-fab, modular, sustainable solutions will come to market (Full disclosure: I have been developing such a solution myself for the past few years). Net result is housing reverses trend & becomes more affordable forever regardless of fiat nominal price. 📉
What mainstream adoption REALLY means is that from now on, everything on Earth will be repriced at an increasingly falling margin above utility value while production costs are simultaneously falling… ad infinitum. 🤙
#BTC will consume all speculative value as it becomes exponentially less risky to simply store value. We have pretty much accepted that at this point; old news. 🤝
But simultaneously, #AI will be adding massive efficiency gains to every single sector of human activity. That leads to costs of production dropping & means of production decentralizing; there will be very few competitive advantages & every sector begins to homogenize in terms of capability. 🟰
Add the trend of #OpenSource to that & you have a future where some things have a zero production premium; you get the open-source plans & you now have a situation where the only costs are material & time (which are both also falling due to innovation). 🆓
These factors mean that the global repricing is going to be multiples above where most think it will be; EVERYTHING you can make at scale will go down in both cost & value (even if it's still going up in nominal terms due to inflation adjustment), but there will probably come a point where things fall in nominal terms too because far less objects will even be deemed to possess value (which is what we just witnessed when the markets aggressively repriced the AI-adjacent businesses); all it takes is one open-source drop to nuke entire sectors. 🙃
The macro pattern for every sector will be:
1. Number go up - speculative bubble blowoff top. 🥳
2. Number go flat - inflation begins to outpace value accretion. 🧐
3. Number go down - we play a li'l "who's gonna hold the bag". 🫠
In terms of housing, it'll look like the institutional sector of real estate competing to liquidate properties & become #Bitcoin treasury companies when they realize that ((cash flow + asset increase - maintenance - tax) < #HODL); they are only businesses after all & they don't give a shit about the actual properties, they simply care about the value accretion. That will actually dampen the value accretion proposition after a certain point because gains will start to top out & then retail will also begin to dump any secondary or non-essential properties; the cost of holding is more than the cost of selling. The supply will increase as all of this demand is waning & the market will eventually find equilibrium slightly above utility value because the production sector will simultaneously be engaged in a race to the bottom for production cost. Lots of pre-fab, modular, sustainable solutions will come to market (Full disclosure: I have been developing such a solution myself for the past few years). Net result is housing reverses trend & becomes more affordable forever regardless of fiat nominal price. 📉
What mainstream adoption REALLY means is that from now on, everything on Earth will be repriced at an increasingly falling margin above utility value while production costs are simultaneously falling… ad infinitum. 🤙