HanShan on Nostr: sure but thats still just "inferences from gossip data" which isnt a useful answer ...

sure but thats still just "inferences from gossip data"
which isnt a useful answer

WHAT data?
HOW do you make inferences about tx success probability when you don't know the tx amounts?

the answer appears to be statistical analysis of the maximum flow.
ie
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_flow_problem

we may not have visibility into the tx sizes but we do have info about *channel sizes*