Michael Aschauer on Nostr: While those numbers are worrying and consistent with the IEA, it helps to get a ...
While those numbers are worrying and consistent with the IEA, it helps to get a bigger picture. I am currently trying to dig beyond one-off media claims, here is a brief gist:
AI, as of now, is a comparably small part filed under data centers. It's set to increase exponentially or more for sure, but nobody knows its trajectory. It's mostly measured or estimated by NVIDIA GPUs sold, produced, or planned to be produced.
Data centers are highly clustered and only one part if we look at the digital sector.
As of 2022 telco networks for transmission and communication eat roughly the same amount of energy as data centers (and it's an inefficient infrastructure built for peak traffic).
The biggest part of energy usage and therefore emissions, however, is caused by end (user) devices by far. A study contracted by the French government put it at 79% without or only with minor changes in their future scenarios: devices generate the largest carbon footprint (around 80%) and are the prime source of depletion of abiotic resources
Fully accounting for an explosion of AI, the IEA concludes: "When considered in a broader context of total electricity consumption growth globally, the contribution of data centers is modest. Global aggregate electricity demand grows by 6750 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030 in our Stated Policies Scenario, equivalent to more than the combined demand from the United States and European Union today. While growing digitalization, including the rise of AI, is one factor, continued economic growth, electric vehicles, air conditioners and the rising importance of electricity-intensive manufacturing are all bigger driver."
While not a friend of big tech, and it's important to study and diffuse, I also don't think it's helpful to frame it as a problem of primarily hyperscalers or AI.
They are just the latest (unlikely the last) and most visible driver in the hunger for more (and the technology cycles going on for decades - if not millennia)
nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqst55f0mhwe5sljx4js2u46ylpp4lxcknzkfr4uwz25gw6597nrzq8cdngu (nprofile…dngu)
AI, as of now, is a comparably small part filed under data centers. It's set to increase exponentially or more for sure, but nobody knows its trajectory. It's mostly measured or estimated by NVIDIA GPUs sold, produced, or planned to be produced.
Data centers are highly clustered and only one part if we look at the digital sector.
As of 2022 telco networks for transmission and communication eat roughly the same amount of energy as data centers (and it's an inefficient infrastructure built for peak traffic).
The biggest part of energy usage and therefore emissions, however, is caused by end (user) devices by far. A study contracted by the French government put it at 79% without or only with minor changes in their future scenarios: devices generate the largest carbon footprint (around 80%) and are the prime source of depletion of abiotic resources
Fully accounting for an explosion of AI, the IEA concludes: "When considered in a broader context of total electricity consumption growth globally, the contribution of data centers is modest. Global aggregate electricity demand grows by 6750 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030 in our Stated Policies Scenario, equivalent to more than the combined demand from the United States and European Union today. While growing digitalization, including the rise of AI, is one factor, continued economic growth, electric vehicles, air conditioners and the rising importance of electricity-intensive manufacturing are all bigger driver."
While not a friend of big tech, and it's important to study and diffuse, I also don't think it's helpful to frame it as a problem of primarily hyperscalers or AI.
They are just the latest (unlikely the last) and most visible driver in the hunger for more (and the technology cycles going on for decades - if not millennia)
nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqst55f0mhwe5sljx4js2u46ylpp4lxcknzkfr4uwz25gw6597nrzq8cdngu (nprofile…dngu)