Coming Of Age In The Fourth Turning

America’s Fourth Fourth Turning

We can learn much from the Book “The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy” By William Strauss and Neil Howe. The Book looks back throughout history to identify the cyclical patterns that emerge and establishes archetypes that emerges in the generations as they come of age in these different stages of history.

There are four phases (turnings) that are outlined in the book:

1. The High
2. The Awakening
3. The Unraveling
4. The Crisis

The authors identify that America is due for another fourth turning, and I would argue that we are now in the midst of America’s Fourth ever fourth turning. The first three being marked by the American Revolution, the Civil War, and the Great Depression- WWII. Today we have been in an increasingly unstable financial, political, and social environment which share eery similarities to the unraveling period of the prior cycles.

I believe that this fourth turning began with the 2008 “Great Financial Crisis” and has been ongoing ever since the fed chose to engage in mass currency devaluation in order to keep the banks solvent. While these actions have delayed the inevitable larger crisis, they will not be able to avoid it. Since 2008 the money supply has grown from roughly \(8 Trillion to over \)20 Trillion. This massive currency dilution is reflected in increased prices across all sectors but heavily concentrated in scarce desirable assets. As National debt continues to rise and interest expenses balloon, the only way out for the US dollar is massive inflation.

The issue with continued inflation is that it leads to massive societal suffering and unrest. At 2% inflation most individuals aren’t aware that they are being stolen from, but as inflation rates start to stick above 10% people start to realize what is really going on. History tells us that as currencies enter into hyper-inflation, the societal fabric begins to fall apart. One does not have to be an anthropologist to look around and realize the massive cultural shifts that we have seen since moving to a fiat standard in 1971 and much faster ever since 2008.

I find it very profound that at the same time that the global financial system began showing cracks, Satoshi Nakamoto introduced the solution to the world. It feels as though this fourth turning is centered around technological innovation in computing, as well as the collapse of an outdated and corrupt financial system. Bitcoin exists at the perfect intersection of these two by utilizing cryptography to empower people to exit the corrupt system and begin to build a superior one on sound foundation. If the crisis of this great fourth turning is centered around the sovereign debt crisis, than Bitcoin becomes the clear answer.

Thriving In The Chaos

Being Born in 2001 I do not have much memory of a pre-2008 world. Being only 7 years old at the time I did not fully grasp the significance of what was going on, but my life has been impacted by it nonetheless.

When the central bank chooses to hold interest rates artificially low, they are effectively driving money into more and more places where it shouldn’t actually be. This is usually described as a bubble, which then bursts leaving many financially ruined. Accept for those who the central bank then chooses to bail out by diluting the purchasing power of all the savers.

Much of the Millenial and Gen Z generations feel that they will never reach financial security or be able own a home and retire at a reasonable age. Many of them are saddled with large student loans, credit card debt, and car loans. While much of this is due to personal decision making, we exist in a system today that is designed to extract as much value as possible from each citizen. If you were to take out a loan to go to school, get a job, a mortgage, and a car payment, and used a savings account, you would never become financially free.

People my age have become increasingly unsatisfied with the way that things are, which is why I am so hopeful for a brighter future. While most aren’t quite aware of what the true heart of the issue is, they feel that something is deeply wrong. I believe that Bitcoin will be the catalyst for the masses to wake up and stop funding the current system.

Those that lead the way into a new frontier during these fourth turnings come out on the other side in positions of great respect and power. While these next few years will likely difficult, there will be massive opportunity for those who are bold enough to stand for their beliefs and work to propagate them.