Dr. M on Nostr: There are still five weeks until the federal elections in Germany, but some things ...
There are still five weeks until the federal elections in Germany, but some things are already pretty clear. Barring some tectonic and unexpected upheaval, the next German chancellor will be Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz, and the government will be formed by a black-red-green coalition.
According to the latest polls, Merz’s CDU has 30 or 31 percent of the support of German voters. The right-wing AfD, despised by the political establishment and the media, is now at 22 percent and rising. The Social Democrats are at 14 to 16 percent, and the Greens at around 13 percent, with the SPD on a downward trend and the Greens on the rise.
The liberal FDP now has the support of only a third of the voters they had in the last federal election in 2021. Back then, they won 11.5 percent of the vote, and now, according to polls, they are getting 3 to 4 percent, which is below the electoral threshold. Apparently, voters strongly resented their participation in the traffic light (Ampel) coalition with the Social Democrats and the Greens. Most of their previous voters have since sided with the AfD.
The math is clear. After the election, #Merz will be the first to get the chance to form a #government and will have only two possible choices: a coalition with the #AfD or a broad coalition with the Social Democrats and the #Greens. He has clearly rejected the first option many times. The last time, three days ago, he could not have been clearer:
"We do not cooperate with a party that is xenophobic, that is anti-Semitic, that has right-wing radicals in its ranks, that has criminals in its ranks, a party that flirts with #Russia and wants to leave the European Union and #NATO. If we did that, we would be selling the soul of the #CDU."
When asked if he could keep his promise, he replied: "Yes, I will keep it. I am tying my fate as party leader of the CDU to this answer."
He compared the AfD to the #Nazis, or rather the way they came to power, and concluded that the AfD would only become even stronger in power and become the strongest party in the 2029 elections. "The next elections after that are in 2033. I think we've had enough of '33," he added.
So, there's only one option left, and that's a coalition with the Reds and Greens, who, with the support of the #FDP, led the previous government. It was this so-called "traffic light" government that Merz has criticized the most in recent months. He called its policies "bankrupt" and claims that #Germany needs a "turnaround." But how do you make a turnaround with the same people?
On economic issues, Merz adheres to classical liberalism and, at least according to his statements in this campaign, he intends to implement certain reforms to free companies and labor from excessive burdens and revive the dormant German economy.
"We have to get out of the structural weakness of our economy, out of the failed energy policy and unemployment subsidies. Everyone who is hardworking earns a reasonable wage and more net than gross," he wrote recently on X. Also this: "Our goal is 2 percent economic growth – with lower corporate #taxes, less red tape and more flexible labor market rules. Without a strong economy, things don't work."
However, it will be difficult to achieve these goals in a government with the #SPD and the #Greens. Former chancellor Olaf Scholz and the SPD are not even as much of a problem as the Greens, who promise the exact opposite economic policy in this campaign. The Greens' candidate for chancellor, Robert Habeck, announces an increase in the tax on capital gains from stocks and savings. Considering the social democrats' deteriorating rating, without the Greens it will be impossible to form a government that would avoid the AfD.
It is clear, therefore, that the negotiations regarding the new coalition will be long-lasting and very difficult. It is also clear that #Merz will have to make numerous concessions, and in the area that is extremely important to Germans right now, which is the economy. At a time when numerous companies are filing for bankruptcy, when uncertainty is in the air and the costs of the economy are rising, the future black-red-green government will not be able to adequately respond to the crisis due to internal ideological conflicts. It will deepen it even further.
Merz understands all this, he will try to condition economic reform, but he will have to give something to the leftists in return. This, by all accounts, could be censorship on social media.
Berlin journalist and political commentator Beatrice Achtenberg pointed out in an article for NZZ that in the latest "Merzmail", his weekly newsletter, Merz asks whether #freedom of expression in the digital age – characterized by platforms such as Facebook, X, Instagram and Tiktok – means that everyone is allowed to express anything, "regardless of whether it is right or wrong."
Achtenberg immediately offers Merz an answer to his question. "The answer is actually simple: Yes, false claims are also covered by freedom of expression in Germany, as long as they are not prohibited by criminal law, such as insult, defamation or incitement to hatred."
"It is probably no coincidence that the CDU leader sounds more like Robert Habeck than a bourgeois savior. Platform X has always been a thorn in the side of the Green candidate for chancellor. He wants to regulate them more closely, as the Greens say. Or in other words: we will censor more.
Merz has apparently become less willing to take risks lately. There is not much left of his characteristic sharp edge, which his opponents have always criticized.
According to his calculations, all this could pave the way for him to become chancellor - a firewall against the AfD means that only the SPD and the Greens remain as possible coalition partners anyway. They should like that Merz is playing so much ahead of the elections. But it will probably scare away conservative-liberal voters. And AfD voters, many of whom once voted loyally for the Union, will certainly not be won back by its resistance to digital media," Achterberg concludes.
It turns out that the Germans will pay for the AfD's failure to enter the government with freedom of speech. Since Germany is a member of the European Union, its policies will have a major impact on the European Commission, which means that this electoral trade will not only be paid for by German citizens, but also by the entire #EU.
FDP leader Christian Lindner hopes for his party's rise in the election campaign and dreams of a black-and-yellow government formed by the CDU and FDP with Chancellor Merz. This would objectively be the best combination for Germany, as it would be the only one that could guarantee economic recovery and progress. However, the chances of such a coalition coming to fruition are not realistic. The FDP could easily surpass the magical 5 percent mark and enter the #Bundestag, but it will not have nearly as many seats as before and will not be able to provide Merz with enough votes to form such a government.
If a broad black-red-green coalition cannot be achieved because the partners will not be able to reach an agreement as in Austria, the CDU and AfD could still eventually form a government. Although Merz is categorically against it, part of his party does not share his position. And the will of the voters should not be ignored, which clearly shows that Germans do not want another left-wing government. Merz said that he guarantees in his position, as chairman of the CDU, that his party will not form a coalition with the AfD, which means that in that case he would resign and leave the negotiations with the "unwanted" partner to others.
Either way, Germany faces a period of extreme uncertainty that will certainly not end on election day and the announcement of the #election results.
According to the latest polls, Merz’s CDU has 30 or 31 percent of the support of German voters. The right-wing AfD, despised by the political establishment and the media, is now at 22 percent and rising. The Social Democrats are at 14 to 16 percent, and the Greens at around 13 percent, with the SPD on a downward trend and the Greens on the rise.
The liberal FDP now has the support of only a third of the voters they had in the last federal election in 2021. Back then, they won 11.5 percent of the vote, and now, according to polls, they are getting 3 to 4 percent, which is below the electoral threshold. Apparently, voters strongly resented their participation in the traffic light (Ampel) coalition with the Social Democrats and the Greens. Most of their previous voters have since sided with the AfD.
The math is clear. After the election, #Merz will be the first to get the chance to form a #government and will have only two possible choices: a coalition with the #AfD or a broad coalition with the Social Democrats and the #Greens. He has clearly rejected the first option many times. The last time, three days ago, he could not have been clearer:
"We do not cooperate with a party that is xenophobic, that is anti-Semitic, that has right-wing radicals in its ranks, that has criminals in its ranks, a party that flirts with #Russia and wants to leave the European Union and #NATO. If we did that, we would be selling the soul of the #CDU."
When asked if he could keep his promise, he replied: "Yes, I will keep it. I am tying my fate as party leader of the CDU to this answer."
He compared the AfD to the #Nazis, or rather the way they came to power, and concluded that the AfD would only become even stronger in power and become the strongest party in the 2029 elections. "The next elections after that are in 2033. I think we've had enough of '33," he added.
So, there's only one option left, and that's a coalition with the Reds and Greens, who, with the support of the #FDP, led the previous government. It was this so-called "traffic light" government that Merz has criticized the most in recent months. He called its policies "bankrupt" and claims that #Germany needs a "turnaround." But how do you make a turnaround with the same people?
On economic issues, Merz adheres to classical liberalism and, at least according to his statements in this campaign, he intends to implement certain reforms to free companies and labor from excessive burdens and revive the dormant German economy.
"We have to get out of the structural weakness of our economy, out of the failed energy policy and unemployment subsidies. Everyone who is hardworking earns a reasonable wage and more net than gross," he wrote recently on X. Also this: "Our goal is 2 percent economic growth – with lower corporate #taxes, less red tape and more flexible labor market rules. Without a strong economy, things don't work."
However, it will be difficult to achieve these goals in a government with the #SPD and the #Greens. Former chancellor Olaf Scholz and the SPD are not even as much of a problem as the Greens, who promise the exact opposite economic policy in this campaign. The Greens' candidate for chancellor, Robert Habeck, announces an increase in the tax on capital gains from stocks and savings. Considering the social democrats' deteriorating rating, without the Greens it will be impossible to form a government that would avoid the AfD.
It is clear, therefore, that the negotiations regarding the new coalition will be long-lasting and very difficult. It is also clear that #Merz will have to make numerous concessions, and in the area that is extremely important to Germans right now, which is the economy. At a time when numerous companies are filing for bankruptcy, when uncertainty is in the air and the costs of the economy are rising, the future black-red-green government will not be able to adequately respond to the crisis due to internal ideological conflicts. It will deepen it even further.
Merz understands all this, he will try to condition economic reform, but he will have to give something to the leftists in return. This, by all accounts, could be censorship on social media.
Berlin journalist and political commentator Beatrice Achtenberg pointed out in an article for NZZ that in the latest "Merzmail", his weekly newsletter, Merz asks whether #freedom of expression in the digital age – characterized by platforms such as Facebook, X, Instagram and Tiktok – means that everyone is allowed to express anything, "regardless of whether it is right or wrong."
Achtenberg immediately offers Merz an answer to his question. "The answer is actually simple: Yes, false claims are also covered by freedom of expression in Germany, as long as they are not prohibited by criminal law, such as insult, defamation or incitement to hatred."
"It is probably no coincidence that the CDU leader sounds more like Robert Habeck than a bourgeois savior. Platform X has always been a thorn in the side of the Green candidate for chancellor. He wants to regulate them more closely, as the Greens say. Or in other words: we will censor more.
Merz has apparently become less willing to take risks lately. There is not much left of his characteristic sharp edge, which his opponents have always criticized.
According to his calculations, all this could pave the way for him to become chancellor - a firewall against the AfD means that only the SPD and the Greens remain as possible coalition partners anyway. They should like that Merz is playing so much ahead of the elections. But it will probably scare away conservative-liberal voters. And AfD voters, many of whom once voted loyally for the Union, will certainly not be won back by its resistance to digital media," Achterberg concludes.
It turns out that the Germans will pay for the AfD's failure to enter the government with freedom of speech. Since Germany is a member of the European Union, its policies will have a major impact on the European Commission, which means that this electoral trade will not only be paid for by German citizens, but also by the entire #EU.
FDP leader Christian Lindner hopes for his party's rise in the election campaign and dreams of a black-and-yellow government formed by the CDU and FDP with Chancellor Merz. This would objectively be the best combination for Germany, as it would be the only one that could guarantee economic recovery and progress. However, the chances of such a coalition coming to fruition are not realistic. The FDP could easily surpass the magical 5 percent mark and enter the #Bundestag, but it will not have nearly as many seats as before and will not be able to provide Merz with enough votes to form such a government.
If a broad black-red-green coalition cannot be achieved because the partners will not be able to reach an agreement as in Austria, the CDU and AfD could still eventually form a government. Although Merz is categorically against it, part of his party does not share his position. And the will of the voters should not be ignored, which clearly shows that Germans do not want another left-wing government. Merz said that he guarantees in his position, as chairman of the CDU, that his party will not form a coalition with the AfD, which means that in that case he would resign and leave the negotiations with the "unwanted" partner to others.
Either way, Germany faces a period of extreme uncertainty that will certainly not end on election day and the announcement of the #election results.