Zeborah on Nostr: So what are the actual chances that a) there'll be more aurora tonight, b) at ...

So what are the actual chances that

a) there'll be more aurora tonight,

b) at Ōtautahi latitudes,

c) visible with naked eye,

and d) from within Ōtautahi if I maybe go down to the local park - or do I need to quickly con a friend-or-family into driving me out into a dark area somewhere?