Austimized on Nostr: Been thinking about all the massive hedging going on in #stocks. If downside #vol ...
Been thinking about all the massive hedging going on in #stocks. If downside #vol erupts, #hedges will minimize it. If upside vol erupts, covering hedges will amplify vol. Actually more “risk” of crash up than down?
So unless something extreme happens (no certification, mass violence and destruction , false flag, 1 month resolving close election, states denying results, #WW3) then downside should be minimal.
Liquidity from US government spending and China #stimulus plus bond revolt worldwide signaling realization of worldwide debt-based currency #devaluation putting large tailwind behind asset prices.
Plus professional investors expecting 2024 recession chasing into year end and massive corporate buybacks - unless downside shock is so large it overrides all that (crisis), upside looks immense goin mg into Q1 2025 at least as Treasury spends down into budget brink.
Also 2022 less was falling stocks = falling tax revenue (majority of taxes are paid by top 10% and most of their income is capital gains) - government knows stocks down = revenue down = even worse deficits…
So unless something extreme happens (no certification, mass violence and destruction , false flag, 1 month resolving close election, states denying results, #WW3) then downside should be minimal.
Liquidity from US government spending and China #stimulus plus bond revolt worldwide signaling realization of worldwide debt-based currency #devaluation putting large tailwind behind asset prices.
Plus professional investors expecting 2024 recession chasing into year end and massive corporate buybacks - unless downside shock is so large it overrides all that (crisis), upside looks immense goin mg into Q1 2025 at least as Treasury spends down into budget brink.
Also 2022 less was falling stocks = falling tax revenue (majority of taxes are paid by top 10% and most of their income is capital gains) - government knows stocks down = revenue down = even worse deficits…