caleb on Nostr: I know, but the odds (as accepted by the counter party) are that Adam is less likely ...

I know, but the odds (as accepted by the counter party) are that Adam is less likely to win so that balances out. The counter party is fairly sure that they will get their payout that is worth less and thinks there is a much smaller possibility they will have to ante up the more valuable winnings if Adam is right.

So while Adam stands to gain more if he wins the counter part believes that is a far less likely outcome and so is a reasonable bet.