Investing.com UK on Nostr: Recession Warning Via States' Economies Was a False Alarm ========== The article ...
Recession Warning Via States' Economies Was a False Alarm
==========
The article discusses the false alarm of a recession warning based on the economies of US states. The warning was based on an indicator that aggregated trends in the 50 US state economies and suggested a high risk of recession in early 2024. However, the warning turned out to be noise, as there was minimal confirmation in other business-cycle indexes. Estimating recession risk in real-time is challenging due to the complexity of the economy and the numerous interactions and feedback loops. The article emphasizes the importance of using a diversified set of indicators and robust ensemble modeling to estimate recession risk accurately. The Composite Recession Probability Index (CRPI) currently indicates a low probability of a recession in the US. The article concludes by cautioning against relying on a single indicator for recession forecasting.
https://uk.investing.com/analysis/recession-warning-via-states-economies-was-a-false-alarm-200606283
==========
The article discusses the false alarm of a recession warning based on the economies of US states. The warning was based on an indicator that aggregated trends in the 50 US state economies and suggested a high risk of recession in early 2024. However, the warning turned out to be noise, as there was minimal confirmation in other business-cycle indexes. Estimating recession risk in real-time is challenging due to the complexity of the economy and the numerous interactions and feedback loops. The article emphasizes the importance of using a diversified set of indicators and robust ensemble modeling to estimate recession risk accurately. The Composite Recession Probability Index (CRPI) currently indicates a low probability of a recession in the US. The article concludes by cautioning against relying on a single indicator for recession forecasting.
https://uk.investing.com/analysis/recession-warning-via-states-economies-was-a-false-alarm-200606283