LynAlden on Nostr: One thing financial analysts tend to discount, is how much fiscal deficits feed into ...
One thing financial analysts tend to discount, is how much fiscal deficits feed into nominal GDP growth. It's a recursive destruction of the denominator that masks the issue.
For example Argentina's deficit as a share of GDP historically hasn't been that big, but that's because their large deficit inflates the denominator and brings nominal GDP up at a fast rate. The deficit relative to the GDP from a year or two ago, was indeed a big ratio, but not the deficit relative to the GDP in the year it happens.
Similarly, some financial analysts looked at the 1940s USA and saw that the Fed's purchases of Treasuries to fund the war deficit weren't that big of a share of GDP in any given yea. But my counter was, nominal GDP increased massively, due to the huge deficits and monetary base expansions. After a few years, the amount of Treasuries the Fed had purchased relative to the GDP of three years ago... was huge.
For example Argentina's deficit as a share of GDP historically hasn't been that big, but that's because their large deficit inflates the denominator and brings nominal GDP up at a fast rate. The deficit relative to the GDP from a year or two ago, was indeed a big ratio, but not the deficit relative to the GDP in the year it happens.
Similarly, some financial analysts looked at the 1940s USA and saw that the Fed's purchases of Treasuries to fund the war deficit weren't that big of a share of GDP in any given yea. But my counter was, nominal GDP increased massively, due to the huge deficits and monetary base expansions. After a few years, the amount of Treasuries the Fed had purchased relative to the GDP of three years ago... was huge.