Bitcoinia (Bitcoin Art) on Nostr: Sharing some analysis I did on M2, BTC Peaks and Global M2 Peaks: Take aways: BTC ...
Sharing some analysis I did on M2, BTC Peaks and Global M2 Peaks:
Take aways:
BTC Price peaks top BEFORE Global M2.
Global M2 I've assumed is related to the new Govt in US beiing elected and assuming that they spend and no do Austerity (pretty good bet me thinks at least for now).
M2 peaks something like 1y 6m after election (election date not when new govt takes power which would be like 6 months after election date).
BTC Peaks about 5 months prior to M2 peak.
Using this info I caclulated that the next BTC Peak should be something like October 2025 - March 2026.
I then asked, how long is BTC Peak price after US Election dates?
The answer to this is 12-13 months which lands us right at the beginning of the range I figured out above AKA Q4 of 2025.
This lines up with some other rule of thumb guides for BTC peaks ie 12-18 months after halvening and what some other analysists have said more or less ie npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l is one I heard recently who thought a similar timeframe.
How much will the peak be? No idea but, if Fiat is infinitely inflationary and has no bottom then BTC also has no top measured in Fiat USD and could be anything depending on how much they print in the next year or so.
Rough Analysis below:
So Global M2 dictates liquidity and alot of this goes into BTC causing a high in this and probabaly other assets like Gold.
How can you tell when BTC will top?
- You can't exactly.
- How can you tell when its likely near a top?
- Well there are Puel and Risk metrics you could use to tell but also you could see
if M2 has any clues in relation to lags and tops.
- For eg, how long before does BTC peak M2 in each bull run?
- How long after the presidential election does M2 peak?
- You could use this as a proxy to figure out when a BTC peak might be happening.
- If you base it on M2 and election date then you should have a solid foundation.
- Take away the average time for BTC to peak before M2 and you have a praxy/indicator.
- So,
- Election dates since 2008 or presidential date?
- Nov 4 2008
- Nov 6 2012 (1 year 9 months to peak of M2)
- Nov 8 2016 (1 year 4 months to peak of M2)
- Nov 3 2020 (1 year 4 months to peak of M2)
- Nov 5 2024 (1 year 6 months (av) would put next top in M2 at March - May 2026)
- M2 Peaks since 2008 but after election date. Should be one over 4 year cycle.
- n/a
- 01 June 2014.
- 01 March 2018.
- 01 March 2022.
- Yet to come but maybe March - June of 2026.
- BTC peaks since 2008
- $1,134 in 01 Nov 2013. 6 months prior to M2 peak.
- $19,75 in 01 Dec 2017. 4 months prior to m2 peak.
- $68,00 in 01 Nov 2021. 4 months prior to M2.
- ???? peak in 4-6 months prior to March - June 2026 which would be Q4 2025 to early 2026.
- Could be between
- October 2025 - December 2025 (Rage Set 1)
- January 2026 - March 2026 (Range Set 2)
- You could also just measure the BTC peaks since Election dates.
- 2012 election Nov 6 and BTC peak Nov 1 2013 so 1 year lets say.
- 2016 election Nov 8 2016 and peak in Dec 2017 so 13 months since election.
- 2020 election Nov 3 2020 and BTC peak Nov 2021 so 12 months to peak.
- 2024, Nov 2025 peak of whatever price.
This is right bang in our range sets desribed above so I'd tend to Say October - December is the correct range set and could be be Nov or Dec momre likely.
#bitcoin #macro #bull #bullish #bullrun #politics #trump #election #btc #plebchain #nostr #grownostr
Take aways:
BTC Price peaks top BEFORE Global M2.
Global M2 I've assumed is related to the new Govt in US beiing elected and assuming that they spend and no do Austerity (pretty good bet me thinks at least for now).
M2 peaks something like 1y 6m after election (election date not when new govt takes power which would be like 6 months after election date).
BTC Peaks about 5 months prior to M2 peak.
Using this info I caclulated that the next BTC Peak should be something like October 2025 - March 2026.
I then asked, how long is BTC Peak price after US Election dates?
The answer to this is 12-13 months which lands us right at the beginning of the range I figured out above AKA Q4 of 2025.
This lines up with some other rule of thumb guides for BTC peaks ie 12-18 months after halvening and what some other analysists have said more or less ie npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l is one I heard recently who thought a similar timeframe.
How much will the peak be? No idea but, if Fiat is infinitely inflationary and has no bottom then BTC also has no top measured in Fiat USD and could be anything depending on how much they print in the next year or so.
Rough Analysis below:
So Global M2 dictates liquidity and alot of this goes into BTC causing a high in this and probabaly other assets like Gold.
How can you tell when BTC will top?
- You can't exactly.
- How can you tell when its likely near a top?
- Well there are Puel and Risk metrics you could use to tell but also you could see
if M2 has any clues in relation to lags and tops.
- For eg, how long before does BTC peak M2 in each bull run?
- How long after the presidential election does M2 peak?
- You could use this as a proxy to figure out when a BTC peak might be happening.
- If you base it on M2 and election date then you should have a solid foundation.
- Take away the average time for BTC to peak before M2 and you have a praxy/indicator.
- So,
- Election dates since 2008 or presidential date?
- Nov 4 2008
- Nov 6 2012 (1 year 9 months to peak of M2)
- Nov 8 2016 (1 year 4 months to peak of M2)
- Nov 3 2020 (1 year 4 months to peak of M2)
- Nov 5 2024 (1 year 6 months (av) would put next top in M2 at March - May 2026)
- M2 Peaks since 2008 but after election date. Should be one over 4 year cycle.
- n/a
- 01 June 2014.
- 01 March 2018.
- 01 March 2022.
- Yet to come but maybe March - June of 2026.
- BTC peaks since 2008
- $1,134 in 01 Nov 2013. 6 months prior to M2 peak.
- $19,75 in 01 Dec 2017. 4 months prior to m2 peak.
- $68,00 in 01 Nov 2021. 4 months prior to M2.
- ???? peak in 4-6 months prior to March - June 2026 which would be Q4 2025 to early 2026.
- Could be between
- October 2025 - December 2025 (Rage Set 1)
- January 2026 - March 2026 (Range Set 2)
- You could also just measure the BTC peaks since Election dates.
- 2012 election Nov 6 and BTC peak Nov 1 2013 so 1 year lets say.
- 2016 election Nov 8 2016 and peak in Dec 2017 so 13 months since election.
- 2020 election Nov 3 2020 and BTC peak Nov 2021 so 12 months to peak.
- 2024, Nov 2025 peak of whatever price.
This is right bang in our range sets desribed above so I'd tend to Say October - December is the correct range set and could be be Nov or Dec momre likely.
#bitcoin #macro #bull #bullish #bullrun #politics #trump #election #btc #plebchain #nostr #grownostr