RolloTreadway on Nostr: npub1g0tuf…3tvm4 My answer would be: yes and no. It's inescapably true that ...
npub1g0tuf634rz4suczwj7kgnecr6cyt0eu9xmp3sp0fku68mqehq4msp3tvm4 (npub1g0t…tvm4) My answer would be: yes and no.
It's inescapably true that Labour's likelihood of retaining power will revolve heavily around cost of living and NHS waiting lists, and whether they're perceived as having improved (not just whether they look better on paper).
But that won't work out the same way. The system's different, there's no cultish religious group presenting anyone here as a saviour, culture war nonsense is a lot less popular, green policies are a lot more popular, etc. There isn't, as I've said before, a far right leader (yet) with broad appeal.
And also, Trump wasn't all that unpopular in 2020. He seems to have got about the same number of votes this year as he did last time. But the Tories were, are, despised to a staggering degree. The kind of voter disappearance that Harris saw would not, if it happened to Labour, lead to a major Tory revival. Reform would pick up some more seats, but if anything, the LibDems would probably be the biggest winners.
(Oh, and that's another huge difference between here and the US: the LibDems.)
I'd argue that the most likely outcome of a failed Labour government would be the kind of chaotic situation that exists in Germany, where no party is particularly popular any more (arguably, we already have that, but it's not yet reflected in seat numbers - it could be in 2029). That leads to the far right potentially having a voice disproportionate to its size. Which would be very worrying, but also profoundly different to the US.
Again, as I often say, we're a lot more of a European country these days than anything like the US.
It's inescapably true that Labour's likelihood of retaining power will revolve heavily around cost of living and NHS waiting lists, and whether they're perceived as having improved (not just whether they look better on paper).
But that won't work out the same way. The system's different, there's no cultish religious group presenting anyone here as a saviour, culture war nonsense is a lot less popular, green policies are a lot more popular, etc. There isn't, as I've said before, a far right leader (yet) with broad appeal.
And also, Trump wasn't all that unpopular in 2020. He seems to have got about the same number of votes this year as he did last time. But the Tories were, are, despised to a staggering degree. The kind of voter disappearance that Harris saw would not, if it happened to Labour, lead to a major Tory revival. Reform would pick up some more seats, but if anything, the LibDems would probably be the biggest winners.
(Oh, and that's another huge difference between here and the US: the LibDems.)
I'd argue that the most likely outcome of a failed Labour government would be the kind of chaotic situation that exists in Germany, where no party is particularly popular any more (arguably, we already have that, but it's not yet reflected in seat numbers - it could be in 2029). That leads to the far right potentially having a voice disproportionate to its size. Which would be very worrying, but also profoundly different to the US.
Again, as I often say, we're a lot more of a European country these days than anything like the US.