Theodore John Kaczynski on Nostr: According to Robin Hanson's Grabby Aliens model, the number of "hard steps" in the ...
According to Robin Hanson's Grabby Aliens model, the number of "hard steps" in the evolution of intelligent life is estimated to be between 3-12, with 6 being a reasonable middle estimate. Here's how this conclusion is reached:
1. The model uses a "hard steps" theory of evolution, which posits that there were several extremely improbable steps that had to occur for intelligent life to emerge[1].
2. Hanson uses a power law to model the probability of these hard steps occurring over time. This power law has two key parameters:
- k: A time constant
- n: The number of hard steps[1][5]
3. To estimate these parameters, Hanson uses two key data points from Earth's history:
- The time from when Earth became habitable to the emergence of the first basic life (about 0.4 billion years)
- The time remaining from now until Earth becomes uninhabitable (about 1.2 billion years)[3]
4. Using these data points and the mathematics of power laws, Hanson concludes that 3-12 hard steps have likely occurred on Earth[3].
5. The estimate of 6 steps is often used as a reasonable middle value within this range[5].
6. This estimate aligns with some proposed lists of major evolutionary transitions, though the exact nature and number of these steps is still debated in biology.
It's important to note that this is an estimate based on a theoretical model, not a definitive biological conclusion. The model uses this estimate to explain humanity's apparently early appearance in cosmic history and to make predictions about the potential existence and behavior of "grabby" alien civilizations[1][4].
Citations:
[1] Robin Hanson's Grabby Aliens model explained - part 1 — EA Forum https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ussPhSiZEKchzgkty/robin-hanson-s-grabby-aliens-model-explained-part-1
[2] [PDF] The Grabby Alien Observer Paradox - PhilArchive https://philarchive.org/archive/BARTGA-19
[3] Robin Hanson, George Mason University: A Simple Model of Grabby ... https://foresight.org/summary/robin-hanson-george-mason-university-a-simple-model-of-grabby-aliens/
[4] Humanity was born way ahead of its time. The reason is grabby ... https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/pujiye/humanity_was_born_way_ahead_of_its_time_the/
[5] Kipping on Grabby Aliens - by Robin Hanson - Overcoming Bias https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/kipping-on-grabby-aliens
[6] Grabby Aliens – a simple model by Robin Hanson https://grabbyaliens.com
[7] Robin Hanson's Grabby Aliens model explained - part 2 — EA Forum https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Z3zFnDKRhGku3qje/robin-hanson-s-grabby-aliens-model-explained-part-2
1. The model uses a "hard steps" theory of evolution, which posits that there were several extremely improbable steps that had to occur for intelligent life to emerge[1].
2. Hanson uses a power law to model the probability of these hard steps occurring over time. This power law has two key parameters:
- k: A time constant
- n: The number of hard steps[1][5]
3. To estimate these parameters, Hanson uses two key data points from Earth's history:
- The time from when Earth became habitable to the emergence of the first basic life (about 0.4 billion years)
- The time remaining from now until Earth becomes uninhabitable (about 1.2 billion years)[3]
4. Using these data points and the mathematics of power laws, Hanson concludes that 3-12 hard steps have likely occurred on Earth[3].
5. The estimate of 6 steps is often used as a reasonable middle value within this range[5].
6. This estimate aligns with some proposed lists of major evolutionary transitions, though the exact nature and number of these steps is still debated in biology.
It's important to note that this is an estimate based on a theoretical model, not a definitive biological conclusion. The model uses this estimate to explain humanity's apparently early appearance in cosmic history and to make predictions about the potential existence and behavior of "grabby" alien civilizations[1][4].
Citations:
[1] Robin Hanson's Grabby Aliens model explained - part 1 — EA Forum https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ussPhSiZEKchzgkty/robin-hanson-s-grabby-aliens-model-explained-part-1
[2] [PDF] The Grabby Alien Observer Paradox - PhilArchive https://philarchive.org/archive/BARTGA-19
[3] Robin Hanson, George Mason University: A Simple Model of Grabby ... https://foresight.org/summary/robin-hanson-george-mason-university-a-simple-model-of-grabby-aliens/
[4] Humanity was born way ahead of its time. The reason is grabby ... https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/pujiye/humanity_was_born_way_ahead_of_its_time_the/
[5] Kipping on Grabby Aliens - by Robin Hanson - Overcoming Bias https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/kipping-on-grabby-aliens
[6] Grabby Aliens – a simple model by Robin Hanson https://grabbyaliens.com
[7] Robin Hanson's Grabby Aliens model explained - part 2 — EA Forum https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Z3zFnDKRhGku3qje/robin-hanson-s-grabby-aliens-model-explained-part-2