A L Katz on Nostr: Did any of the opinion polls predict last night's outcome across all those states? ...
Did any of the opinion polls predict last night's outcome across all those states?
No, it did not. The outcome - yet again - baffled the pollsters - and therefore the news media who, as always, treat poll results like science.
Close races were NOT close.
And not only did Virginia's Gov Youngkin NOT get control of VA's state house - like the news media seemed to expect he would (because he said he would) - the Democrats held onto the VA state senate AND RETOOK THE VA STATE HOUSE.
Did ANY of the pollsters forecast THAT?
NO.
How people answer a pollster's question and how they actually vote - and why - can differ. But not for the reason pollsters think - because the voter's being dishonest. Much more likely, they answered the question the way they did because of the question itself!
Polling questions are crafted and sweated over and argued about. They're the polls framework. It's unstated, proprietary justification for being.
Alas, since the public not being polled never knows how any pollster FRAMED their poll to the person taking it, we don't actually know what any pollster is actually asking.
Further - this is really important - consider who has the time to take a poll, answering some stranger's questions.
Right off the bat, polls can only ever represent one particular, less-busy slice of the population.
But - as each election keeps proving, the population is changing - HAS CHANGED - in profound ways. Events have turned millions of non-voters into voters because, suddenly, they recognized not just that they had skin in the game, but how much skin they had in the game. A shitload.
Donald Trump didn't turn the Republican Party into this corrupt, treasonous monstrosity, he merely unleashed the GOP's dark id.
All their latent racism, bigotry and misogyny suddenly got free rein to run amok. And here we are!
The polls keep saying one thing (like Trump will defeat Biden next year) while the results from 2018 onward say something else entirely.
Everything has changed. To use a word Republicans hate, Democrats got woke. Or, the Democrats that weren't woke got woke. The party that rarely showed up to vote started showing up to vote - and not just in the presidential years.
We are not living in the America the pollsters think they're polling. And the one our news media apparently thinks we all live in.
https://howtolivebullshit-free.com/2023/11/05/opinion-polls-v-horse-manure/
No, it did not. The outcome - yet again - baffled the pollsters - and therefore the news media who, as always, treat poll results like science.
Close races were NOT close.
And not only did Virginia's Gov Youngkin NOT get control of VA's state house - like the news media seemed to expect he would (because he said he would) - the Democrats held onto the VA state senate AND RETOOK THE VA STATE HOUSE.
Did ANY of the pollsters forecast THAT?
NO.
How people answer a pollster's question and how they actually vote - and why - can differ. But not for the reason pollsters think - because the voter's being dishonest. Much more likely, they answered the question the way they did because of the question itself!
Polling questions are crafted and sweated over and argued about. They're the polls framework. It's unstated, proprietary justification for being.
Alas, since the public not being polled never knows how any pollster FRAMED their poll to the person taking it, we don't actually know what any pollster is actually asking.
Further - this is really important - consider who has the time to take a poll, answering some stranger's questions.
Right off the bat, polls can only ever represent one particular, less-busy slice of the population.
But - as each election keeps proving, the population is changing - HAS CHANGED - in profound ways. Events have turned millions of non-voters into voters because, suddenly, they recognized not just that they had skin in the game, but how much skin they had in the game. A shitload.
Donald Trump didn't turn the Republican Party into this corrupt, treasonous monstrosity, he merely unleashed the GOP's dark id.
All their latent racism, bigotry and misogyny suddenly got free rein to run amok. And here we are!
The polls keep saying one thing (like Trump will defeat Biden next year) while the results from 2018 onward say something else entirely.
Everything has changed. To use a word Republicans hate, Democrats got woke. Or, the Democrats that weren't woke got woke. The party that rarely showed up to vote started showing up to vote - and not just in the presidential years.
We are not living in the America the pollsters think they're polling. And the one our news media apparently thinks we all live in.
https://howtolivebullshit-free.com/2023/11/05/opinion-polls-v-horse-manure/