Cemo on Nostr: I'm a pleb who don't know much, but I try to find out whether Bitcoin is as safe as ...
I'm a pleb who don't know much, but I try to find out whether Bitcoin is as safe as gold. I mean, if I buy gold, I know it will exist in 1000 years also, but can Bitcoin really guarantee that too? Will it really exist for decades, centuries or even millenias?
I think about these point of failures, but don't know if they are even possible:
1. What if an AI or quantum computer finds a super fast way to check all possible private keys for btc balance and steal them? Slow by slow, not all of them but enough to get dead rich?
2. What if we have not enough core developer anymore because governments hunt them and even try to find the anon ones?
3. What if Lightning fails because some problems turns out to not solvable? Is a BTC Standard even possible then?
4. What if a charismatic person can change the mind of the most plebs in the network so many with a node say ok to a fork like a switch to PoS or bigger blocks? Is the idea of Bitcoin dead then?
5. What if a sunstorm happens which destroys all electronic on the planet? People say we would have other problems then. Sure, but not everybody will survive, millions or even billions will survive. So can Bitcoin survive for the afterworld? Gold can survive for sure.
6. What if a Blackout happens which lasts for months? Wouldnt be gold and fiat more useful in this time?
7. What if humanity never accepts a Bitcoin Standard? What if the most people see more advantages in a fiat system?
8. What if the richest countries ban Bitcoin like they banned monero? Would be the Bitcoin standard possible?
All of these questions can be summed up with this question: Are Bitcoiners just religious and ideological, or can Bitcoin really not fail anymore? Is there really no future without Bitcoin anymore?
If there is a 0,001% probability that it can fail, how it can be regarded as secure as gold then? Gold as an element can't disappear, can Bitcoin really provide that too?
Again, I don't even know if the scenarios above are even possible, but it is really hard to believe that a software is as safe as a physical element. I want to believe that, and most of the time I did, but I like to question anything so I won't get disappointed if a black swan event causes the death of Bitcoin. The thing about black swan is, none of the scenarios I mentioned above are black swans because I can think about them. A black swan event is something you can't be prepared for because nobody thought about it (like the upcoming of ordinals - except their developers of course). As long as the laws of physics work, no black swan event in this world could cause a disappearance of gold. Can we really say the same about Bitcoin? Is Bitcoin really the better store of value, or just a mass hypnosis? At this point, I really don't know. So I would lie to myself if I would say I trust in Bitcoin for 100%. I trust in it Ford 95% at this moment, so I think about convert at least 50% of my stack into gold and silver, because in gold I trust for 100%, unless we are able to mine on asteroids some day.
I'm a highly ambivalent guy who can change his mind pretty fast. If someone can provide really good arguments why BTC will survive at least all worst case scenarios (nobody can give a guarantee for a black swan event), I'm sure I will fully trust it again. But right now, I'm not willing to let all my savings in btc.
Hours ago I would tell everybody Bitcoin is 100% safe, don't know if it's a good or bad thing to change your mind so easily.
I think about these point of failures, but don't know if they are even possible:
1. What if an AI or quantum computer finds a super fast way to check all possible private keys for btc balance and steal them? Slow by slow, not all of them but enough to get dead rich?
2. What if we have not enough core developer anymore because governments hunt them and even try to find the anon ones?
3. What if Lightning fails because some problems turns out to not solvable? Is a BTC Standard even possible then?
4. What if a charismatic person can change the mind of the most plebs in the network so many with a node say ok to a fork like a switch to PoS or bigger blocks? Is the idea of Bitcoin dead then?
5. What if a sunstorm happens which destroys all electronic on the planet? People say we would have other problems then. Sure, but not everybody will survive, millions or even billions will survive. So can Bitcoin survive for the afterworld? Gold can survive for sure.
6. What if a Blackout happens which lasts for months? Wouldnt be gold and fiat more useful in this time?
7. What if humanity never accepts a Bitcoin Standard? What if the most people see more advantages in a fiat system?
8. What if the richest countries ban Bitcoin like they banned monero? Would be the Bitcoin standard possible?
All of these questions can be summed up with this question: Are Bitcoiners just religious and ideological, or can Bitcoin really not fail anymore? Is there really no future without Bitcoin anymore?
If there is a 0,001% probability that it can fail, how it can be regarded as secure as gold then? Gold as an element can't disappear, can Bitcoin really provide that too?
Again, I don't even know if the scenarios above are even possible, but it is really hard to believe that a software is as safe as a physical element. I want to believe that, and most of the time I did, but I like to question anything so I won't get disappointed if a black swan event causes the death of Bitcoin. The thing about black swan is, none of the scenarios I mentioned above are black swans because I can think about them. A black swan event is something you can't be prepared for because nobody thought about it (like the upcoming of ordinals - except their developers of course). As long as the laws of physics work, no black swan event in this world could cause a disappearance of gold. Can we really say the same about Bitcoin? Is Bitcoin really the better store of value, or just a mass hypnosis? At this point, I really don't know. So I would lie to myself if I would say I trust in Bitcoin for 100%. I trust in it Ford 95% at this moment, so I think about convert at least 50% of my stack into gold and silver, because in gold I trust for 100%, unless we are able to mine on asteroids some day.
I'm a highly ambivalent guy who can change his mind pretty fast. If someone can provide really good arguments why BTC will survive at least all worst case scenarios (nobody can give a guarantee for a black swan event), I'm sure I will fully trust it again. But right now, I'm not willing to let all my savings in btc.
Hours ago I would tell everybody Bitcoin is 100% safe, don't know if it's a good or bad thing to change your mind so easily.