ava on Nostr: So, looking at raw numbers with 50,000 devices: Your individual odds = 1 in 50,000 ...

So, looking at raw numbers with 50,000 devices:

Your individual odds = 1 in 50,000
Waiting time = 75-80 days
So you're looking at:
• A 0.002% chance of mining a block
• Waiting ~2.5 months for that tiny chance

With 1 million devices:

Your individual odds = 1 in 1,000,000
Waiting time = 3-5 days
That's:
• A 0.0001% chance of mining a block
• Every 3-5 days, someone in that million gets lucky
• But it's probably not you

However, these statistics are oversimplified. Here's how Bitcoin mining actually works:

Your real chance of mining a block = (Your hashrate / Total network hashrate)

For perspective:
• With 1 TH/s of mining power, odds are roughly 1 in 249,694,649 per block
• A new block is mined every ~10 minutes
• But it's a continuous probability game, not a scheduled event

When more devices join the network:
1. The total network hashrate increases
2. Your individual device's hashrate stays the same
3. Therefore, your relative share (and odds) decrease

So when they say 'a device will mine a block every X days,' it's misleading—it's a network-wide statistic, like saying 'someone will win the lottery every drawing.' It doesn't improve your individual device's chances; more competition actually makes your odds worse.

This is why solo mining has largely been replaced by industrial mining operations—the odds for individual miners have become increasingly unfavorable as the network has grown.

I don't gamble, and I don't play the lottery. These devices are fun and educational, but they are expensive lottery tickets with worse odds.