steve on Nostr: “Perception and Misperception in International Politics” by Robert Jervis ...
“Perception and Misperception in International Politics” by Robert Jervis
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Im not gonna lie… this was a tough read. As the name implies, Jervis presents a thorough analysis of the psychology surrounding perceptions and misperceptions as it applies to the world of international politics. His theories are grounded in psychological theory and then reinforced with countless examples that are frankly too numerous to follow (or refute, for that matter). Written during the Cold War, Jervis presents two competing models for anticipating how an adversary would react to heightened security measures: deterrence and spiral theory. Without detailing either, he concludes that both could be right… you just never know 🤷🏻♂️ So what’s the moral of this story? I took two lessons from this: 1️⃣ implicitly state your assumptions before making a decision since they may be wrong, and 2️⃣ always designate a “devil’s advocate” or red team to challenge proposals from the adversaries point of view.
⭐️⭐️
Im not gonna lie… this was a tough read. As the name implies, Jervis presents a thorough analysis of the psychology surrounding perceptions and misperceptions as it applies to the world of international politics. His theories are grounded in psychological theory and then reinforced with countless examples that are frankly too numerous to follow (or refute, for that matter). Written during the Cold War, Jervis presents two competing models for anticipating how an adversary would react to heightened security measures: deterrence and spiral theory. Without detailing either, he concludes that both could be right… you just never know 🤷🏻♂️ So what’s the moral of this story? I took two lessons from this: 1️⃣ implicitly state your assumptions before making a decision since they may be wrong, and 2️⃣ always designate a “devil’s advocate” or red team to challenge proposals from the adversaries point of view.