john on Nostr: SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME AURORA & GEOMAGNETIC STORM EVENT POSSIBLE ...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME AURORA & GEOMAGNETIC STORM EVENT POSSIBLE
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A Significant Geomagnetic Storm event has been forecasted by NOAA/NWS Space Weather Prediction Center as a result of a Fast, Dense and Energetic Full Halo, Coronal Mass Ejection from an X1.84 Flare.
In relation to this CME, the Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a G4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch!
This is a very significant occurrence, as this is only the second time since 2005 such a High-Level watch has been issued!
(The last time was the May 2024 Extreme Geomagnetic Storm event).
NOAA is forecasting SEVERE Geomagnetic Storm Conditions with the G4 rating likely, noting that G5 EXTREME conditions are possible within their forecast (this is very high end wording for NOAA who often elect to forecast on the conservative side of things.)
These types of events are increasingly rare and only happen a few times per Solar Cycle.
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This event presents significant and exciting Geomagnetic Storm and Aurora potential for a significant portion of Australia (and the world for that matter) residing within the Mid-High Latitude areas. Should High Level Storming occur within the G4-G5 ranges, Locations within the Low latitude areas may even have a chance.
Auroras could be possible over the next day or two in major cities including Hobart, Melbourne, Sydney and Perth including Locations in between. If Strong Storming does occur, an event of this nature could push as far North as Southern Queensland.
This sort of setup holds the possibility to rival the infamous Halloween Geomagnetic Storms of October 2003, with Solar wind speeds potentially exceeding 1000Km/s. (it has been a long time since this has occurred).
This CME is Very fast moving and sits somewhere between 2500-2999Km/s placing it within the R type category (Rare).
Given the fast moving nature, a rapid Earth arrival is expected, with NOAA and other models placing it around 15-16UTC Oct 10 +/- 8hrs. (Australian local time conversions below).
HUXt Modelling places a direct hit at Earth with 100% confidence, with solar wind speeds likely well in excess of 800-900Km/s. (modelling included in the comments for those interested).
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IMPORTANT
***It must be said that while the physical setup looks great, we still require good Southward magnetic field connection on arrival with Earth to ensure charge flow can occur and build, to allow for strong storming levels to perpetuate.
Northward alignments for sustained periods can significantly inhibit Aurora potential or almost entirely prevent it. ***
(Think of this as how a magnet works, the opposites attract and allow charge to flow in, like to like repels charge).
————————————————————————
A Significant Geomagnetic Storm event has been forecasted by NOAA/NWS Space Weather Prediction Center as a result of a Fast, Dense and Energetic Full Halo, Coronal Mass Ejection from an X1.84 Flare.
In relation to this CME, the Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a G4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch!
This is a very significant occurrence, as this is only the second time since 2005 such a High-Level watch has been issued!
(The last time was the May 2024 Extreme Geomagnetic Storm event).
NOAA is forecasting SEVERE Geomagnetic Storm Conditions with the G4 rating likely, noting that G5 EXTREME conditions are possible within their forecast (this is very high end wording for NOAA who often elect to forecast on the conservative side of things.)
These types of events are increasingly rare and only happen a few times per Solar Cycle.
————————————————————————
This event presents significant and exciting Geomagnetic Storm and Aurora potential for a significant portion of Australia (and the world for that matter) residing within the Mid-High Latitude areas. Should High Level Storming occur within the G4-G5 ranges, Locations within the Low latitude areas may even have a chance.
Auroras could be possible over the next day or two in major cities including Hobart, Melbourne, Sydney and Perth including Locations in between. If Strong Storming does occur, an event of this nature could push as far North as Southern Queensland.
This sort of setup holds the possibility to rival the infamous Halloween Geomagnetic Storms of October 2003, with Solar wind speeds potentially exceeding 1000Km/s. (it has been a long time since this has occurred).
This CME is Very fast moving and sits somewhere between 2500-2999Km/s placing it within the R type category (Rare).
Given the fast moving nature, a rapid Earth arrival is expected, with NOAA and other models placing it around 15-16UTC Oct 10 +/- 8hrs. (Australian local time conversions below).
HUXt Modelling places a direct hit at Earth with 100% confidence, with solar wind speeds likely well in excess of 800-900Km/s. (modelling included in the comments for those interested).
————————————————————————
IMPORTANT
***It must be said that while the physical setup looks great, we still require good Southward magnetic field connection on arrival with Earth to ensure charge flow can occur and build, to allow for strong storming levels to perpetuate.
Northward alignments for sustained periods can significantly inhibit Aurora potential or almost entirely prevent it. ***
(Think of this as how a magnet works, the opposites attract and allow charge to flow in, like to like repels charge).