RolloTreadway on Nostr: npub1g0tuf…3tvm4 I think a number of reasons. There'll be the people for whom ...
npub1g0tuf634rz4suczwj7kgnecr6cyt0eu9xmp3sp0fku68mqehq4msp3tvm4 (npub1g0t…tvm4) I think a number of reasons.
There'll be the people for whom voting Tory is an integral part of their identity, and they wouldn't dream of doing anything else.
There'll be the people with local Tory MPs who they like, and will vote for them even if they dislike the wider party.
There'll be the people who don't follow politics at all, and are personally doing well enough not to think about voting differently.
And there'll also be the complex calculations, the secretive formulae that polling companies use to predict how many alienated former Tories will actually end up crossing that box on the day. That's the tricky bit, the biggest reason why polls sometimes go wildly wrong (in various directions). Given how many alienated Tories there are right now - far more than in 2019 - those calculations are doing a lot of heavy lifting.
A personal note on this. My mother is very much part of the first group. She votes Tory as part of her identity, much as she writes CofE on the census but never goes to church. For the past couple of years, she's been insisting that she absolutely won't vote for them this time; she wants to vote Green, but doesn't know if they'll put up a candidate where she is.
If there is a Green candidate, I suspect she'll stick to her promise, but if not, I can definitely see her backsliding and voting for the Tory because she doesn't know what else to do.
There'll be the people for whom voting Tory is an integral part of their identity, and they wouldn't dream of doing anything else.
There'll be the people with local Tory MPs who they like, and will vote for them even if they dislike the wider party.
There'll be the people who don't follow politics at all, and are personally doing well enough not to think about voting differently.
And there'll also be the complex calculations, the secretive formulae that polling companies use to predict how many alienated former Tories will actually end up crossing that box on the day. That's the tricky bit, the biggest reason why polls sometimes go wildly wrong (in various directions). Given how many alienated Tories there are right now - far more than in 2019 - those calculations are doing a lot of heavy lifting.
A personal note on this. My mother is very much part of the first group. She votes Tory as part of her identity, much as she writes CofE on the census but never goes to church. For the past couple of years, she's been insisting that she absolutely won't vote for them this time; she wants to vote Green, but doesn't know if they'll put up a candidate where she is.
If there is a Green candidate, I suspect she'll stick to her promise, but if not, I can definitely see her backsliding and voting for the Tory because she doesn't know what else to do.