yope on Nostr: As an engineer, I am often surprised at how many people don't understand what a ...
As an engineer, I am often surprised at how many people don't understand what a "model" is.
The saying "all models are wrong..." isn't a form of cope. It's fully intentional and inherent to any model.
If a model wasn't wrong, it would be reality. But models are useful because reality is too complex to be useful in many cases, especially when extrapolating into the future.
A model can be as simple as saying if a car moves at 10m/s to the north, after the next 10s it will be 100m further to the north. Of course that is wrong, since it doesn't account for any form of acceleration nor other higher order position derivatives. The actual position of the car will deviate more from the model the farther into the future one takes it.
If one wants to use a model, one needs to fully understand all aspects and limitations of it.
Going leverage long and "laser eyes till 100k" just because some model said the price of BTC will be at that point in 2021 is not the model's fault.
But... as I always say, making a business out of people innocently falling for that, is fraud!
The saying "all models are wrong..." isn't a form of cope. It's fully intentional and inherent to any model.
If a model wasn't wrong, it would be reality. But models are useful because reality is too complex to be useful in many cases, especially when extrapolating into the future.
A model can be as simple as saying if a car moves at 10m/s to the north, after the next 10s it will be 100m further to the north. Of course that is wrong, since it doesn't account for any form of acceleration nor other higher order position derivatives. The actual position of the car will deviate more from the model the farther into the future one takes it.
If one wants to use a model, one needs to fully understand all aspects and limitations of it.
Going leverage long and "laser eyes till 100k" just because some model said the price of BTC will be at that point in 2021 is not the model's fault.
But... as I always say, making a business out of people innocently falling for that, is fraud!