btcfeen on Nostr: Usa and global liquidity… usa liquidity sideways. Globa down a bit recently. Btc ...
Usa and global liquidity… usa liquidity sideways. Globa down a bit recently. Btc normally trades on a 3m lag to global liquidty. So perhaps we see an iterim top in dec until this starts picking back up https://www.tradingview.com/x/LjibkJnJ/
DXY… the weekly resistance rejected it for now. Highest weekly rsi since oct of 22’. https://www.tradingview.com/x/spimv9j3/
Us10y… 8 consective green candles… final had a close over the resistance… I feel like this is starting to have a bit of an effect on gold finally https://www.tradingview.com/x/XGGC1cyk/
Tlt… closed below one of the weekly supports https://www.tradingview.com/x/bwWGKaZS/
Spx… red week last week but structure still fine https://www.tradingview.com/x/h3MkvZx1/
Gold.. bit of a sell off recently. Probably healthy tbh. Daily rsi lowest since oct of last year. Prob good for a bounce at min https://www.tradingview.com/x/XVOEIBi9/
BTC… the 2w week closed and pushed up on the bands. This is coming off of a top 3 squeeze ever. The past times this has occurred we have had very nice expansions in the subsequent months https://www.tradingview.com/x/eRlFh277/
Good weekly close. Almost full body even though most of the gain was early last week. We avoided any weird deviation on the bband breakout which is great. There is a trendline that could provide some resistance around 105k. https://www.tradingview.com/x/q2TQxB75/
Linear fibs from the range says this should go to 113k next https://www.tradingview.com/x/MT0rcFRD/
Log scale says 140k next if 94 breaks https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZUYiOvJO/
When looking at the updated price/50dma ratio it is in a similar spot to both previous ath range breakouts. We can see on the chart that price/50dma was right around 1.25 where it is now. All 3 times had very nice gains after. So I am expecting price to run a bit more before we get a pullback/consolidation. https://www.tradingview.com/x/RHtfBZY9/ the tops happened within 20 days https://www.tradingview.com/x/WlexOeZE/ the cycle low multiple says we should have an interim top within 30 days too. Expecting basically up only into this. Minimal pullbacks in price. Maybe some consolidation. This also matches with the first wave of hype of new retail and any investors that need to get reallocated. https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-low-multiple/
I think in regards to game theory saylor is likely trying to push up price/ get as much hype as he can for btc before thanksgiving. He wants the btc price up so he can sell shares too to buy more btc. He always wants to get in the qqq and spx as soon as possible for the passive flows. Right now his average is around 50k. leverage still seems ok to me atm. I hope he doesn’t push it too far too fast though. Although it is all term debt.
We have more btc held by long term holders than ever before. It is natural that as price increases that old holders will want to increase the quality of their lives. I do think that this new set of entrants is more likely to hold for the long term. The boomers have done that pretty well and have been conditioned to do so. We still haven’t really seen IRA’s starting to allocate. I have seen anecdotes of people scoffing at the idea of investing in mstr or etfs. Im sure some are but its still pretty early in that front imo. In 2017, we saw 3m btc sold on the way up from 730 to 20k. in 2021 we saw 2.2 mil sold from 11k to 65k. in the run up phases in 2016 and 2020 we saw 600-700k of selling from long term holders. This time we saw 1.6 mil sold on the run up from 30k to 73k. so imo we have already seen a decent distribution and reaccumulation. The reason price didn’t dip that much was from the spot etf buying. Imo bc of the selling we have already seen price will likely need to go quite a bit higher to unlock major supply. What that is idk, maybe double? Imo the time to get worried is when we have seen 2 to 3 mil of long term holders sell. https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/supply/breakdown_lthsth_0/breakdown_lthsth_0_light.html
looking at mid tfs we have a 4 hr bband squeeze and ascending tri. The 4 hr macd has been a good signal recently. If this plays out similarly when it crosses price to should above 100k. https://www.tradingview.com/x/QslA2LsE/ https://www.tradingview.com/x/tes0fAS4/
Ethusd… sideways weekly. Not much to comment on here besides watching this big ass tri. Very bullish when the yellow breaks imo https://www.tradingview.com/x/xy2eOjxy/ sentiment on eth is still so down in the dumps. I get that sol has taken over and is the base chain for speculation and memecoins, but imo that is just speculation and it can easily flip around if price rebounds. Imo eth is still a bit underowned for this cycle. I think sentiment now for eth is where sentiment from sol was in early 2023.
Ethbtc red engluflign after the nice candle last week. Bull div atm now on the weekly rsi. Weekly rsi also at a point from where weve seen nice bounces. Pa is in a bit of no mands land. Unless .04 can be reclaimed or .03 hits not sure there is anything super actionable. I do think eth calls are attractive here. eth etf flows are finally getting started and I think it is very possible eth might get a staking yield on top. I think people and wall st might find that attractive over btc and that could allow eth to outperform a bit. https://www.tradingview.com/x/JdPuwBsz/
Total2 very nice breakout of the wedge. At resistance currently https://www.tradingview.com/x/0o4pOV9q/
Total3 same deal here. at resistance https://www.tradingview.com/x/8bNqIizF/
Btc.d still in the channel https://www.tradingview.com/x/eolMkqo9/
Overall thoughts. Another good week. Saylor is a mad man and is going to keep pushing the gas imo. We also have mara that is trying to buy 700 mil worth soon. I am still very bullish for the next month. I think thanksgiving dinners will be hyped and it could lead to a new wave of buying post thanksgiving for a few weeks while people figure it out. This also lines up with my bullish timeline for the next 2-4 weeks. Eth is starting to get more attractive to me. Just a feeling. I think the play there is calls for march or wait until .03 is tagged.
DXY… the weekly resistance rejected it for now. Highest weekly rsi since oct of 22’. https://www.tradingview.com/x/spimv9j3/
Us10y… 8 consective green candles… final had a close over the resistance… I feel like this is starting to have a bit of an effect on gold finally https://www.tradingview.com/x/XGGC1cyk/
Tlt… closed below one of the weekly supports https://www.tradingview.com/x/bwWGKaZS/
Spx… red week last week but structure still fine https://www.tradingview.com/x/h3MkvZx1/
Gold.. bit of a sell off recently. Probably healthy tbh. Daily rsi lowest since oct of last year. Prob good for a bounce at min https://www.tradingview.com/x/XVOEIBi9/
BTC… the 2w week closed and pushed up on the bands. This is coming off of a top 3 squeeze ever. The past times this has occurred we have had very nice expansions in the subsequent months https://www.tradingview.com/x/eRlFh277/
Good weekly close. Almost full body even though most of the gain was early last week. We avoided any weird deviation on the bband breakout which is great. There is a trendline that could provide some resistance around 105k. https://www.tradingview.com/x/q2TQxB75/
Linear fibs from the range says this should go to 113k next https://www.tradingview.com/x/MT0rcFRD/
Log scale says 140k next if 94 breaks https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZUYiOvJO/
When looking at the updated price/50dma ratio it is in a similar spot to both previous ath range breakouts. We can see on the chart that price/50dma was right around 1.25 where it is now. All 3 times had very nice gains after. So I am expecting price to run a bit more before we get a pullback/consolidation. https://www.tradingview.com/x/RHtfBZY9/ the tops happened within 20 days https://www.tradingview.com/x/WlexOeZE/ the cycle low multiple says we should have an interim top within 30 days too. Expecting basically up only into this. Minimal pullbacks in price. Maybe some consolidation. This also matches with the first wave of hype of new retail and any investors that need to get reallocated. https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-low-multiple/
I think in regards to game theory saylor is likely trying to push up price/ get as much hype as he can for btc before thanksgiving. He wants the btc price up so he can sell shares too to buy more btc. He always wants to get in the qqq and spx as soon as possible for the passive flows. Right now his average is around 50k. leverage still seems ok to me atm. I hope he doesn’t push it too far too fast though. Although it is all term debt.
We have more btc held by long term holders than ever before. It is natural that as price increases that old holders will want to increase the quality of their lives. I do think that this new set of entrants is more likely to hold for the long term. The boomers have done that pretty well and have been conditioned to do so. We still haven’t really seen IRA’s starting to allocate. I have seen anecdotes of people scoffing at the idea of investing in mstr or etfs. Im sure some are but its still pretty early in that front imo. In 2017, we saw 3m btc sold on the way up from 730 to 20k. in 2021 we saw 2.2 mil sold from 11k to 65k. in the run up phases in 2016 and 2020 we saw 600-700k of selling from long term holders. This time we saw 1.6 mil sold on the run up from 30k to 73k. so imo we have already seen a decent distribution and reaccumulation. The reason price didn’t dip that much was from the spot etf buying. Imo bc of the selling we have already seen price will likely need to go quite a bit higher to unlock major supply. What that is idk, maybe double? Imo the time to get worried is when we have seen 2 to 3 mil of long term holders sell. https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/supply/breakdown_lthsth_0/breakdown_lthsth_0_light.html
looking at mid tfs we have a 4 hr bband squeeze and ascending tri. The 4 hr macd has been a good signal recently. If this plays out similarly when it crosses price to should above 100k. https://www.tradingview.com/x/QslA2LsE/ https://www.tradingview.com/x/tes0fAS4/
Ethusd… sideways weekly. Not much to comment on here besides watching this big ass tri. Very bullish when the yellow breaks imo https://www.tradingview.com/x/xy2eOjxy/ sentiment on eth is still so down in the dumps. I get that sol has taken over and is the base chain for speculation and memecoins, but imo that is just speculation and it can easily flip around if price rebounds. Imo eth is still a bit underowned for this cycle. I think sentiment now for eth is where sentiment from sol was in early 2023.
Ethbtc red engluflign after the nice candle last week. Bull div atm now on the weekly rsi. Weekly rsi also at a point from where weve seen nice bounces. Pa is in a bit of no mands land. Unless .04 can be reclaimed or .03 hits not sure there is anything super actionable. I do think eth calls are attractive here. eth etf flows are finally getting started and I think it is very possible eth might get a staking yield on top. I think people and wall st might find that attractive over btc and that could allow eth to outperform a bit. https://www.tradingview.com/x/JdPuwBsz/
Total2 very nice breakout of the wedge. At resistance currently https://www.tradingview.com/x/0o4pOV9q/
Total3 same deal here. at resistance https://www.tradingview.com/x/8bNqIizF/
Btc.d still in the channel https://www.tradingview.com/x/eolMkqo9/
Overall thoughts. Another good week. Saylor is a mad man and is going to keep pushing the gas imo. We also have mara that is trying to buy 700 mil worth soon. I am still very bullish for the next month. I think thanksgiving dinners will be hyped and it could lead to a new wave of buying post thanksgiving for a few weeks while people figure it out. This also lines up with my bullish timeline for the next 2-4 weeks. Eth is starting to get more attractive to me. Just a feeling. I think the play there is calls for march or wait until .03 is tagged.