BitopiaLand on Nostr: The Modern Opium War will be Fought over Bitcoin The Opium Wars of the 19th century ...
The Modern Opium War will be Fought over Bitcoin
The Opium Wars of the 19th century were about silver. The 21st century equivalent will be about Bitcoin.
In the 1800s Britain desired Chinese goods (tea and silk) but produced nothing the Chinese desired. China only wanted silver, and Britain’s silver reserves went down fast.
Britain solved this by militarily forcing China to accept opium, for which the decaying Qing society had a high demand.
With the rise of Bitcoin as the economic resource nations compete over, we might see a similar dynamic play out in the future: The US having a high demand for Chinese products, but producing nothing the Chinese want.
Reluctant to see its strategic Bitcoin reserves dwindle too fast, the US might try to force China to accept anything else but Bitcoin.
What if the US Produces Nothing the Chinese Want?
Today’s trade landscape echoes the 19th-century economic imbalance that fueled the Opium Wars. The US imports vast amounts of goods from China but has fewer products China desires in return.
China, as the “factory of the world,” produces everything from high-tech components to consumer goods.
The US further restricts exports of key technologies, like semiconductors, limiting its appeal in China’s eyes.
If China were to accept only Bitcoin, the US could face a strategic dilemma.
It will be reluctant to see its strategic Bitcoin reserves go to China and will seek to find other ways to resolve its trade balance with China.
Will the US Try to Force China, Like the British Did?
China only accepting Bitcoin will put the US in a similar position as Britain in the 1800s. Facing a trade imbalance and dwindling Bitcoin reserves is not a situation the US will be comfortable with.
What will it do about it?
Will the US try to pressure China through economic means, or might it even try to use its military to force China to accept anything but Bitcoin?
What Strategies Could the US Employ?
The US may consider various strategies to avoid draining its Bitcoin reserves.
Economic coercion is one, with the US imposing sanctions to pressure China into accepting other currencies or products. However, the trade imbalance means that China is less dependent on the US than the other way around.
Alternatively, the US might consider military pressure to get what it wants.
This is also unlikely to succeed since the military and technology gap between the US and China is much smaller than between Britain and China in the 1800s.
History Will Not Repeat Itself
The US will attempt to maintain its economic dominance, but history is unlikely to repeat itself in the same way.
What will be the same is that the US will be just as reluctant to supply Bitcoin to China as the British were to supply silver in the 19th century.
But the US is unlikely to impose its will on China through sanctions or military force. The only choice it will have is to innovate and produce goods that China and the world genuinely desire.
Another example of Bitcoin forcing nations to innovate and compete peacefully…
The Opium Wars of the 19th century were about silver. The 21st century equivalent will be about Bitcoin.
In the 1800s Britain desired Chinese goods (tea and silk) but produced nothing the Chinese desired. China only wanted silver, and Britain’s silver reserves went down fast.
Britain solved this by militarily forcing China to accept opium, for which the decaying Qing society had a high demand.
With the rise of Bitcoin as the economic resource nations compete over, we might see a similar dynamic play out in the future: The US having a high demand for Chinese products, but producing nothing the Chinese want.
Reluctant to see its strategic Bitcoin reserves dwindle too fast, the US might try to force China to accept anything else but Bitcoin.
What if the US Produces Nothing the Chinese Want?
Today’s trade landscape echoes the 19th-century economic imbalance that fueled the Opium Wars. The US imports vast amounts of goods from China but has fewer products China desires in return.
China, as the “factory of the world,” produces everything from high-tech components to consumer goods.
The US further restricts exports of key technologies, like semiconductors, limiting its appeal in China’s eyes.
If China were to accept only Bitcoin, the US could face a strategic dilemma.
It will be reluctant to see its strategic Bitcoin reserves go to China and will seek to find other ways to resolve its trade balance with China.
Will the US Try to Force China, Like the British Did?
China only accepting Bitcoin will put the US in a similar position as Britain in the 1800s. Facing a trade imbalance and dwindling Bitcoin reserves is not a situation the US will be comfortable with.
What will it do about it?
Will the US try to pressure China through economic means, or might it even try to use its military to force China to accept anything but Bitcoin?
What Strategies Could the US Employ?
The US may consider various strategies to avoid draining its Bitcoin reserves.
Economic coercion is one, with the US imposing sanctions to pressure China into accepting other currencies or products. However, the trade imbalance means that China is less dependent on the US than the other way around.
Alternatively, the US might consider military pressure to get what it wants.
This is also unlikely to succeed since the military and technology gap between the US and China is much smaller than between Britain and China in the 1800s.
History Will Not Repeat Itself
The US will attempt to maintain its economic dominance, but history is unlikely to repeat itself in the same way.
What will be the same is that the US will be just as reluctant to supply Bitcoin to China as the British were to supply silver in the 19th century.
But the US is unlikely to impose its will on China through sanctions or military force. The only choice it will have is to innovate and produce goods that China and the world genuinely desire.
Another example of Bitcoin forcing nations to innovate and compete peacefully…