Joost Jager [ARCHIVE] on Nostr: 📅 Original date posted:2021-11-15 📝 Original message: One direction that I ...
📅 Original date posted:2021-11-15
📝 Original message:
One direction that I explored is to start with a statement by the user in
this form:
"If there is a route with a success probability of 50%, then I am willing
to pay up to 1.8x the routing fee for an alternative route that has a 80%
success probability"
I like this because it isn't an abstract weight or factor. It is actually
clear what this means.
What I didn't yet succeed in is to find a model where I can plug in 50%,
80% and 1.8x and generalizes it to arbitrary inputs A% and B%. But it seems
to me that there must be some probabilistic equation / law / rule / theorem
/ ... that can support this.
Joost.
On Mon, Nov 15, 2021 at 4:25 PM Joost Jager <joost.jager at gmail.com> wrote:
> In Lightning pathfinding the two main variables to optimize for are
> routing fee and reliability. Routing fee is concrete. It is the sat amount
> that is paid when a payment succeeds. Reliability is a property of a route
> that can be expressed as a probability. The probability that a route will
> be successful.
>
> During pathfinding, route options are compared against each other. So for
> example:
>
> Route A: fee 10 sat, success probability 50%
> Route B: fee 20 sat, success probability 80%
>
> Which one is the better route? That depends on user preference. A patient
> user will probably go for route A in the hope of saving on fees whereas for
> a time-sensitive payment route B looks better.
>
> It would be great to offer this trade-off to the user in a simple way.
> Preferably a single [0, 1] value that controls the selection process. At 0,
> the route is only optimized for fees and probabilities are ignored
> completely. At 1, the route is only optimized for reliability and fees are
> ignored completely.
>
> But how to choose between the routes A and B for a value somewhere in
> between 0 and 1? For example 0.5 - perfect balance between reliability and
> fee. But what does that mean exactly?
>
> Anyone got an idea on how to approach this best? I am looking for a simple
> formula to decide between routes, preferably with a reasonably sound
> probability-theoretical basis (whatever that means).
>
> Joost
>
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📝 Original message:
One direction that I explored is to start with a statement by the user in
this form:
"If there is a route with a success probability of 50%, then I am willing
to pay up to 1.8x the routing fee for an alternative route that has a 80%
success probability"
I like this because it isn't an abstract weight or factor. It is actually
clear what this means.
What I didn't yet succeed in is to find a model where I can plug in 50%,
80% and 1.8x and generalizes it to arbitrary inputs A% and B%. But it seems
to me that there must be some probabilistic equation / law / rule / theorem
/ ... that can support this.
Joost.
On Mon, Nov 15, 2021 at 4:25 PM Joost Jager <joost.jager at gmail.com> wrote:
> In Lightning pathfinding the two main variables to optimize for are
> routing fee and reliability. Routing fee is concrete. It is the sat amount
> that is paid when a payment succeeds. Reliability is a property of a route
> that can be expressed as a probability. The probability that a route will
> be successful.
>
> During pathfinding, route options are compared against each other. So for
> example:
>
> Route A: fee 10 sat, success probability 50%
> Route B: fee 20 sat, success probability 80%
>
> Which one is the better route? That depends on user preference. A patient
> user will probably go for route A in the hope of saving on fees whereas for
> a time-sensitive payment route B looks better.
>
> It would be great to offer this trade-off to the user in a simple way.
> Preferably a single [0, 1] value that controls the selection process. At 0,
> the route is only optimized for fees and probabilities are ignored
> completely. At 1, the route is only optimized for reliability and fees are
> ignored completely.
>
> But how to choose between the routes A and B for a value somewhere in
> between 0 and 1? For example 0.5 - perfect balance between reliability and
> fee. But what does that mean exactly?
>
> Anyone got an idea on how to approach this best? I am looking for a simple
> formula to decide between routes, preferably with a reasonably sound
> probability-theoretical basis (whatever that means).
>
> Joost
>
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