Fabio Manganiello on Nostr: npub18kk07…p6me4 npub1zl8j5…apnyf I have various hypothesis about the detachment ...
npub18kk07k30ryn960p4cy9s2qdv47zl94lyqwaqamnfr9l3xsvkzmkq8p6me4 (npub18kk…6me4) npub1zl8j5tfhnhmyyy438vkkmf8n8kfzueu9uwpn55yufslr7h7x4nrqzapnyf (npub1zl8…pnyf) I have various hypothesis about the detachment between polls and actual results.
First, I think that polls don't accurately capture the sentiment of the more rural electorate. They traditionally concentrate where the bulk of votes is (i.e. large cities), rather than going after the long tail of rural votes (which, especially in the US, is particularly long).
Second, it *may* be that those who vote for those parties don't actually say that they will vote for those parties when interviewed - either because some of them usually don't have an opinion until literally the last minute, or because they also know that they'll be perceived as intolerant/bigots.
Either way, the poll problem must be definitely solved. I can have a vague idea of what may cause it, but I don't have full access to the raw dataset to prove my hypotheses.
First, I think that polls don't accurately capture the sentiment of the more rural electorate. They traditionally concentrate where the bulk of votes is (i.e. large cities), rather than going after the long tail of rural votes (which, especially in the US, is particularly long).
Second, it *may* be that those who vote for those parties don't actually say that they will vote for those parties when interviewed - either because some of them usually don't have an opinion until literally the last minute, or because they also know that they'll be perceived as intolerant/bigots.
Either way, the poll problem must be definitely solved. I can have a vague idea of what may cause it, but I don't have full access to the raw dataset to prove my hypotheses.