Speedster71 on Nostr: Trey awesome work. I did some cals looking at retiring at 65 living to 100, with a ...
Trey awesome work.
I did some cals looking at retiring at 65 living to 100, with a constant percentage withdrawal using the power law model for an average USD price.
4% didn’t payout much in your younger years and had you dying with a huge unspent portfolio.
8% was a good balance of early payouts but portfolio value increased all the way till death.
10% payed out good early with the portfolio value flat the last 10 years.
16% payed out great early but portfolio value declined in the last 20 years.
So i concur with your results. 4% is probably too low. 10% -12% might be theoretically optimal but with volatility and the uncertainty of life 8% is probably better. Ideally you would have some optionality in payout size so you could adjust to suit your needs at the moment.
Keep up the good work.
I did some cals looking at retiring at 65 living to 100, with a constant percentage withdrawal using the power law model for an average USD price.
4% didn’t payout much in your younger years and had you dying with a huge unspent portfolio.
8% was a good balance of early payouts but portfolio value increased all the way till death.
10% payed out good early with the portfolio value flat the last 10 years.
16% payed out great early but portfolio value declined in the last 20 years.
So i concur with your results. 4% is probably too low. 10% -12% might be theoretically optimal but with volatility and the uncertainty of life 8% is probably better. Ideally you would have some optionality in payout size so you could adjust to suit your needs at the moment.
Keep up the good work.