jsm on Nostr: Probability seems to be leaning further against the killer being a trained assassin. ...
Probability seems to be leaning further against the killer being a trained assassin.
From first principles, if we simply look at the base rate of the number of people who probably feel wronged by UnitedHealthcare vs the number of powerful people who would call a hit on Thompson the probability would lean against trained assassin.
Second, perhaps I overestimate assassins because of movies, but I find it hard to believe a professional killer would go to Starbucks with his mask down right before the killing. They obviously were reasonably trained with their pistol and planned the assassination better than the average killing, but it still seems like an average person tried their best instead of a professional.
I think there’s a 20% chance it was a professional assassin.
From first principles, if we simply look at the base rate of the number of people who probably feel wronged by UnitedHealthcare vs the number of powerful people who would call a hit on Thompson the probability would lean against trained assassin.
Second, perhaps I overestimate assassins because of movies, but I find it hard to believe a professional killer would go to Starbucks with his mask down right before the killing. They obviously were reasonably trained with their pistol and planned the assassination better than the average killing, but it still seems like an average person tried their best instead of a professional.
I think there’s a 20% chance it was a professional assassin.
quoting note1una…jlf4Interesting market.
https://manifold.markets/tedks/what-were-the-motives-of-the-united