Lauren Weinstein on Nostr: Polling is pretty consistent on this, and way out of margin of error. People vote on ...

Polling is pretty consistent on this, and way out of margin of error. People vote on pocketbook issues, and their local perceptions. They see high interest rates, and the perception of high crime (though major stats are down). Biden has made major errors like pushing EVs in a way that gives Trump a "they want to take away your cars" argument. Trump is out there willing to rant for hours to anyone, while they've been keeping Biden cloistered with the fewest press conferences of any contemporary president. Trump is chaotically energetic on the stump, Biden looks 20 years older than him even though it's really 3. Trump seems relatively the same to most onlookers, while Biden has obviously declined dramatically over four years. So all of this, no matter how depressing, is entirely predictable. That's why if Biden stays in he will lose, possibly by recent historic margins. He will only get worse as the election progresses. It's all very sad, 'cause I love the guy.